石油沥青日报：终端需求偏弱，局部现货下跌-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with previous long positions advised to take appropriate profit and exit [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Terminal demand for asphalt is weak, with local spot prices falling The overall cost side of asphalt still has support, but the weak terminal demand and the wide availability of alternative raw materials will limit the upward space of the market [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On January 19th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2603 in the afternoon session was 3,142 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, a rise of 0.29% The open interest was 191,534 lots, down 2,331 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 124,762 lots, down 7,088 lots [1] - According to Zhuochuang Information, the spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt were: Northeast 3,406 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,010 - 3,240 yuan/ton; South China 3,130 - 3,250 yuan/ton; East China 3,180 - 3,230 yuan/ton [1] - Yesterday, asphalt spot prices in North China rose slightly, while those in Shandong and East China fell, and prices in other regions remained basically stable Weather factors restricted the release of rigid demand for asphalt, but the supply side was still supported due to the limited circulation of some asphalt brands [2] - The market is pricing in the expectation of tightened Venezuelan oil supply and has entered a volatile stage If Venezuelan crude oil originally flowing to Asia continues to flow to Europe and the United States, domestic refineries will need to find alternative heavy - quality raw materials from the Middle East, Canada, South America, etc. after consuming inventory raw materials (expected to last until March), which will make cost and product yield changes more complex [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, previous long positions should take appropriate profit and exit; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]