20260120申万期货品种策略日报：原油甲醇-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: SC night - session dropped 0.52%. Geopolitical risk premium in the oil market decreased as Trump shifted to a wait - and - see attitude on Iran. Market sentiment turned more pessimistic after Trump's positive phone call with Venezuelan acting president. More crude oil is expected to be exported from Venezuela in the coming weeks. OPEC report forecasts global demand for JMMC member countries' crude oil to remain at 43 million barrels per day in 2026, a 600,000 - barrel - per - day increase from 2025, and rise to 43.6 million barrels per day in 2027 [3]. - Methanol: Methanol night - session declined 1.39%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants dropped 4.67 percentage points to 80.75%. The overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 77.91% as of January 15, down 0.18 percentage points from last week and 1.69 percentage points from the same period last year. Coastal methanol inventory decreased slightly. Short - term outlook is bullish, while the situation in Iran needs attention [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: SC near - month, SC next - month, WTI near - month, WTI next - month, Brent near - month, and Brent next - month all rose, with increases of 0.24%, 0.20%, 0.74%, 0.79%, 0.99%, and 0.98% respectively. The previous day's closing prices were 453.7, 454.8, 60.14, 59.83, 63.37, and 62.96 respectively [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: Trading volumes were 66,825, 19,066, 240,924, 141,512, 218,464, and 135,720 respectively. Open interests were 29,337, 18,468, 326,326, 215,726, 622,875, and 460,724 respectively. Open interest changes were - 482, 1055, - 16162, 7344, - 6472, and 9121 respectively [2]. - Spreads: Current spreads such as SC near - month - SC next - month were - 1.1, compared to the previous value of - 1.3 [2]. Spot Market - International Market: International crude oil spot and refined oil prices rose. For example, OPEC basket crude oil price increased from 62.77 to 62.94 [2]. - Domestic Market: Some domestic prices changed. For instance, the price of Daqing crude oil decreased from 60.38 to 59.54 [2].