国际货币基金组织今日早评-20260120

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's independence remains a market concern, and geopolitical factors increase the risk aversion sentiment, but excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [1]. - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to high开工, decreased downstream demand, and expected large - scale imports [2]. - The steel market may experience weak fluctuations in the short term due to the impact of cold snaps on demand and potential production cuts by steel mills [4]. - The manganese - silicon market will continue to have a loose supply - demand pattern, and the futures price will mainly fluctuate around the cost valuation [4]. - The coke market may gradually become tighter in supply - demand structure, with the spot price following the cost and the futures price following the coking coal [5]. - The impact of the sow inventory data on the futures market has been digested quickly, and low - buying the LH2603 contract is recommended for the hog market [5]. - The palm oil market is in a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation", and range trading is recommended [6]. - The soybean meal market will have a loose supply in the first quarter, and the spot price is restricted, with the futures price expected to decline [6]. - The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term, waiting for new drivers [7]. - The aluminum price is expected to continue the high - level shock due to supply constraints and weak demand [7]. - The long - term treasury bond market has increased shock attributes, and the stock - bond seesaw effect should be noted [8]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term due to new capacity pressure and high inventory [9]. - The silver market has long - term support but limited short - term upward momentum, and excessive bullishness is not recommended [10]. - The PVC market price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term due to high supply and weak demand [11]. - The crude oil market has an oversupply pressure, and short - selling trading is recommended in the short term [12]. - The PX market is expected to have a limited downward space in the second quarter, and the impact of Middle - East geopolitics on oil prices should be noted [13]. - The natural rubber market is expected to have a short - term correction, and short - selling or waiting and seeing is recommended [14]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Types Metals - Gold: The Fed chairman's participation in the debate and geopolitical factors increase risk aversion, but excessive bullishness is not recommended [1] - Silver: The IMF's economic forecast supports long - term demand, but short - term upward momentum is limited, and geopolitical factors should be noted [10] - Copper: The long - term structural support for copper prices remains, but short - term upward momentum may weaken, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock [7] - Aluminum: High prices and external tariffs suppress demand, and the supply faces a ceiling. The price is expected to continue the high - level shock [7] - Steel (including rebar): Cold snaps affect demand, and steel mills may cut production. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices may fluctuate weakly [4] - Manganese Silicon: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the futures price will mainly fluctuate around the cost valuation [4] - Coke: Cost supports the price, and the supply - demand structure may become tighter, with the spot following the cost and the futures following coking coal [5] Chemicals - Methanol: High开工, decreased downstream demand, and expected large - scale imports may lead to short - term weak fluctuations [2] - PVC: High supply, weak domestic demand, and price competition in exports put pressure on the price, which is expected to fluctuate under pressure [11] - PX: The supply is high in January, and the first - quarter supply - demand is weaker than expected, but the second - quarter downward space is limited [13] - Soda Ash: New capacity pressure and high inventory may lead to short - term weak fluctuations [9] Energy - Crude Oil: Supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical factors lead to a weak trend, and short - selling trading is recommended in the short term [12] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Strong exports and production decline support the price, but high inventory restricts the upward space. Range trading is recommended [6] - Soybean Meal: Loose supply in the first quarter and weak demand restrict the price, and the futures price may decline [6] - Hog: The impact of sow inventory data has been digested, and low - buying the LH2603 contract is recommended [5] - Natural Rubber: Raw material prices in Southeast Asia are firm, but inventory accumulation and slow de - stocking may lead to a short - term correction [14] Bonds - Long - term Treasury Bonds: The economic recovery and the stock - bond seesaw effect increase the shock attributes of the bond market [8]