Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-20 05:46Investment Rating - The report rates the logistics industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the express delivery industry is experiencing a divergence in performance among companies, with varying revenue growth rates and business volume changes [2]. - Factors such as price increases in express delivery, the timing of the New Year goods festival, and e-commerce taxes are impacting the growth rates of express delivery business volumes [2]. - The report anticipates that the overall volume growth in January and February will remain stable compared to the previous year, despite the challenges faced in December [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In December, major express companies reported mixed results: - YTO Express had a revenue of 6.496 billion yuan, up 7.48% year-on-year, with a business volume of 2.884 billion tickets, up 9.04% [2]. - Yunda's revenue was 4.626 billion yuan, down 1.49%, with a business volume of 2.148 billion tickets, down 7.37% [2]. - Shentong Express reported a revenue of 5.836 billion yuan, up 28.23%, with a business volume of 2.501 billion tickets, up 11.09% [2]. - SF Holding's total revenue from express logistics, supply chain, and international business was 27.339 billion yuan, up 3.41% [2]. Price Trends - The average industry price in December was 7.94 yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.31 yuan, indicating a trend of price increases in the express delivery sector [2]. - The report notes that the price changes among companies varied, with SF seeing the highest increase of 0.34 yuan [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as ZTO Express and YTO Express, which are expected to continue benefiting from industry consolidation and price increases [2]. - It also suggests monitoring Shentong Express for its performance elasticity and highlights Jitu Express's growth potential in Southeast Asia and new markets [2].