养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Oils and Fats: Overall, there are more bearish factors. The upward trend of soybean oil is expected to slow down. For rapeseed oil, the near - term fundamentals are tight but supply has a large recovery expectation. Palm oil has both positive and negative factors, and it can be considered to go long after the market stabilizes. - Beans and Meal: The supply of beans in China is sufficient, and the price of soybean meal is expected to remain weak. Opportunities to short soybean meal and soybeans No.2 can be considered. - Corn and Corn Starch: The external market is under pressure, but the domestic market has support. A bullish approach is recommended in the short - term. - Soybeans No.1: The valuation is not low and the upward drive is insufficient. It may continue to be weak in the short - term. - Hogs: The near - term spot pressure is relieved, and the far - month contract has a premium over the near - term. Investors can consider holding long positions in the far - month. - Eggs: Consumption is expected to improve, and supply pressure is relieved to some extent. Aggressive investors can consider going long in some contracts [1][2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation a. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybeans No.1 05 | Loosening of traders' price - holding attitude, cautious downstream purchases | 4200 - 4250 | 4400 - 4420 | Sideways adjustment | Temporary wait - and - see | | | Soybeans No.2 05 | Sufficient domestic soybean supply, good growth of South American soybeans | 3380 - 3400 | 3500 - 3530 | Weak adjustment | Bearish operation | | Oils | Soybean Oil 05 | Weakness of adjacent oils, sufficient domestic supply | 7850 - 7880 | 8080 - 8100 | Sideways adjustment | Temporary wait - and - see | | | Rapeseed Oil 05 | Near - term fundamentals are tight but supply may recover | 8700 - 8720 | 9120 - 9150 | Sideways adjustment | Short at high prices | | | Palm Oil 05 | Support from US biodiesel policy and Malaysian palm oil exports, but high inventory suppresses prices | 8300 - 8350 | 8950 - 9000 | Sideways movement | Go long after stabilization | | Protein | Soybean Meal 05 | Sufficient supply, large far - month transactions | 2600 - 2650 | 2780 - 2800 | Sideways decline | Bearish operation | | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | Bearish sentiment due to Sino - Canadian talks | 2190 - 2200 | 2340 - 2350 | Sideways adjustment | Bearish operation | | Energy and By - products | Corn 03 | Support from the decline of high - quality corn supply | 2160 - 2170 | 2330 - 2350 | Support exists | Bullish approach | | | Corn Starch 03 | Follows the cost of corn and has support | 2450 - 2460 | 2620 - 2640 | Support exists | Bullish approach | | Livestock | Hogs 03 | Feed price rebounds, strong expectation of capacity reduction | 11000 - 11300 | 12500 - 12800 | Bottom - hunting in sideways | Light - position trial long | | | Eggs 05 | Decrease in new production and expectation of consumption peak | 3300 - 3400 | 3650 - 3700 | Bottom - hunting in sideways | Buy at low prices | [9] b. Commodity Arbitrage - Inter - delivery Spread: Most varieties are recommended for wait - and - see, while for corn 3 - 5, it is recommended to short at high prices. - Inter - variety Spread: For some oil spreads and oil - meal ratios, it is recommended to take corresponding bullish or bearish operations, and some are recommended for wait - and - see [10][11]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The text provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors [12]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival duty - paid prices [14][15]. - Weekly Data: It presents the inventory and operation rate data of various oils and oilseeds, such as soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanut, and peanut oil [17]. b. Feed - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and arrival duty - paid costs [17]. - Weekly Data: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, such as deep - processing enterprise consumption, inventory, operation rate, and farmers' grain - selling progress [18]. c. Livestock It provides daily and weekly data of hogs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, and some key market data such as production cost, profit, and slaughter data [18][19][20][21]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts It includes various charts related to the livestock end (hogs and eggs), oils and oilseeds, and feed end, which help to track the market fundamentals of different varieties [22][31][47]. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of historical volatility and trading volume of options for various varieties, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, and corn [98][99]. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of warehouse receipt quantities and position volumes of various varieties, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [103][104][105].