生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft - commodity and fresh - fruit sectors present complex market situations. For sugar, the global supply is abundant, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures may be range - bound. For pulp, the supply pressure is easing, but the upside is limited. For double - offset paper, the short - term demand is supported by publication orders, but the long - term demand is under pressure. For cotton, the short - term price may adjust slightly, and the medium - to - long - term price is expected to rise. For apples, the long - term price has support, but the short - term may be adjusted at a high level. For jujubes, the market is moving towards a balance of supply and demand, and the futures price may be volatile [4][5][6][8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Fresh - Fruit Futures: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to reduce long positions, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 11000 - 11500. For Jujube 2605, it is recommended to buy on dips, with a support range of 8700 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [19]. - Soft - Commodity Futures: For Sugar 2605, it is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 5200 - 5220 and a pressure range of 5350 - 5380. For Pulp 2605, it is recommended to be bearish in the range, with a support range of 5300 - 5350 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5700. For Double - Offset Paper 2605, it is recommended to operate in the range, with a support range of 4000 - 4100 and a pressure range of 4300 - 4350. For Cotton 2605, it is recommended to reduce long positions, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market Situation - Fundamentals: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of January 15, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main production areas was 6.5557 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 488,000 tons [20]. - Spot Market: In the Shandong and Shaanxi production areas, the mainstream prices were stable. In the sales areas, the sales volume increased slightly over the weekend, and the mainstream prices remained stable [20][21]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market Situation As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market is expected to enter a peak sales period [22]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market Situation - As of the week of January 13, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 165,711 contracts, indicating strong bearish sentiment. - As of January 15, 2026, the cumulative sugarcane crushing in India was 176.374 million tons, and the sugar production was 15.885 million tons, both higher than the same period last year. - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of January 17, the cumulative sugarcane crushing in Thailand was 29.2643 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.09%, and the sugar production was 2.8651 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. - In 2025, the actual arrival volume of out - of - quota raw sugar in China was 2.2161 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2823 million tons [24]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market As of December 31, the pulp price was stable. In January, the price of BHK pulp shipped to China and other Asian markets was increased by $20/ton, and large enterprises' purchases tightened the supply and pushed up the price [27]. 3.2.5 Double - Offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand was still weak, and the overall inventory pressure increased. The operating load rate was 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points, and the increase rate expanded by 0.23 percentage points [28]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market - In December, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 166.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% and a month - on - month increase of 7.72%. The cumulative retail sales from January to December were 1.5215 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. - In December 2025, China's cotton import volume was 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. - India's Cotton Corporation started selling new cotton in the 2025/26 season on January 19, 2026 [29]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2605 closed at 9345, down 196 or 2.05%. - Jujube 2605 closed at 8815, down 60 or 0.68%. - Sugar 2605 closed at 5244, down 14 or 0.27%. - Pulp 2605 closed at 5362, unchanged. - Cotton 2605 closed at 14545, down 45 or 0.31% [30]. 3.3.2 Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan/jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.45 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of sugar was 5350 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and down 560 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Silver Star) was 5550 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 1000 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 500 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of cotton was 15,880 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan month - on - month and up 1104 yuan year - on - year [36]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis provided in the summary, but relevant basis charts are presented, including Apple 5 - month basis, Jujube main - contract basis, etc. [51][52][54]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - For apples, the 5 - 10 spread was 1370, unchanged month - on - month and up 1890 year - on - year, with an expected bullish trend, and it is recommended to buy on dips. - For jujubes, the 5 - 9 spread was - 240, down 5 month - on - month and up 60 year - on - year, and it is recommended to wait and see. - For sugar, the 5 - 9 spread was - 16, down 7 month - on - month and down 140 year - on - year, and it is recommended to wait and see. - For cotton, the 5 - 9 spread was - 165, down 10 month - on - month and down 10 year - on - year, with an expected bearish trend, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [58]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation Relevant charts show the top 20 rankings of long and short positions, trading volume, and net long and net short changes for apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary [64][66][70]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The number of apple warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - The number of jujube warehouse receipts was 3298, up 27 month - on - month and down 706 year - on - year. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 14,126, unchanged month - on - month and down 7939 year - on - year. - The number of pulp warehouse receipts was 139,584, down 9550 month - on - month and down 204,546 year - on - year. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 9658, down 8 month - on - month and up 3164 year - on - year [87]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - Apple Options: Relevant charts show trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility. - Sugar Options: The charts show trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility. - Cotton Options: The charts show trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility. No specific data analysis is provided in the summary [90][94][99].