新能源及有色金属日报：消费坚挺但情绪减弱-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Consumption is entering the traditional off - season with a slowdown in downstream operating rates, but the accumulation of social inventory is slow. Zinc prices are still undervalued, and downstream acceptance of prices is relatively good with stable spot premiums. The suspension of KZ and YP zinc delivery business on the LME has limited impact on the current inventory structure assessment, and delivery qualifications can be restored after re - approval, but the risk of source tracing needs attention. TC shows no upward trend, and comprehensive smelting is still facing losses. Long - term consumption is still promising, inventory pressure is not high, and zinc prices are still undervalued [4] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$34.80 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by ￥380 per ton to ￥24,420 per ton, with a spot premium of ￥40 per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by ￥390 per ton to ￥24,420 per ton, with a spot premium of ￥0 per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by ￥380 per ton to ￥24,360 per ton, with a spot premium of -￥20 per ton [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On January 19, 2026, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at ￥24,560 per ton, closed at ￥24,450 per ton, down ￥475 per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 224,507 lots, and the open interest was 128,677 lots. The highest price during the day was ￥24,600 per ton, and the lowest was ￥24,335 per ton [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 19, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven major regions was 122,000 tons, a change of 3,500 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 105,050 tons, a change of - 1,475 tons from the previous trading day [3]