中辉能化观点-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously chase long [2][3] - Urea: Cautiously chase long [3] - Natural gas: Bearish rebound [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand relationship, and cost. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and South America have an impact on the prices of energy - related products. Supply - demand imbalances exist in many varieties, with some facing over - supply pressure during the off - season, while others have weak demand. Cost factors, especially the price of crude oil, play a crucial role in the price trends of many products [1][7][11] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Summary: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have decreased, but there is still uncertainty. The market is in an off - season with supply surplus, and inventories are rising. OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the long - term, with short - term rebounds possible [1][11][12] - Price Information: WTI主力 at $59.34, Brent主力 at $64.13, and SC主力 at 442.6 yuan/barrel [9] - Supply: Iraq's daily oil export in January 2026 is expected to be 3.6 million barrels [12] - Demand: The share of Middle East crude supply in India's December 2025 crude imports rose to nearly 54% [12] - Inventory: As of the week of January 9, US crude inventory increased by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million barrels [12] - Strategy: In the long - term, OPEC+ expansion may push the price into a low - price range. Short - term, watch for rebounds, and for SC, focus on the range of [430 - 445] [13] LPG - Summary: It follows the downward trend of the cost - end crude oil price. The supply and demand are relatively stable, with downstream chemical demand showing resilience. The inventory shows positive signals [1][17] - Price Information: On January 19, the PG主力 contract closed at 4124 yuan/ton, down 0.48% [16] - Supply: As of the week of January 16, the LPG commodity volume was 518,700 tons, up 600 tons [17] - Demand: As of the week of January 16, the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates were 73.07% (- 2.54pct), 67.57% (+0.00pct), and 37.99% (+0.32pct) respectively [17] - Inventory: As of the week of January 16, the refinery inventory was 156,700 tons, down 1,900 tons, and the port inventory was 2.0278 million tons, down 104,200 tons [17] - Strategy: In the long - term, the price may continue to decline. Focus on the range of [4000 - 4100] [18] L - Summary: The basis weakens, and it follows the cost - end to move weakly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [22] - Price Information: L05 closed at 6667 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7 yuan/ton [20][22] - Supply: The parking ratio is 14%, and the planned device restart this week may lead to a slight increase in production [22] - Demand: Entering the off - season in January, the demand is weakening [22] - Strategy: Focus on the range of [6600 - 6750] [22] PP - Summary: The warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the supply is slightly increasing. It follows the cost to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The supply - demand is weak on both sides [26] - Price Information: PP05 closed at 6482 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 yuan/ton [24][26] - Supply: The parking ratio is 19%, and the PDH profit is low, increasing the expectation of maintenance [26] - Demand: Entering the off - season in January, the demand is weakening [26] - Strategy: Focus on the range of [6400 - 6600] [26] PVC - Summary: The price of calcium carbide has increased, and the price of liquid caustic soda has decreased, with improved cost support. However, there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand in the long - term, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse [30] - Price Information: V05 closed at 4801 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 241 yuan/ton [28][30] - Supply: The domestic operating rate has increased to 80% [30] - Demand: In the seasonal off - season, both domestic and foreign demand are weak [30] - Inventory: Social inventory has reached a new high [30] - Strategy: Focus on the range of [4700 - 4900] [30] PX/PTA - Summary: It is in a range - bound state. The processing fee has been repaired, but the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the cost - end PX is in a weak balance [32] - Price Information: TA05 closed at 5018 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 58 yuan/ton [31][32] - Supply: Multiple domestic devices are under maintenance, and overseas devices have some planned maintenance [32] - Demand: Downstream polyester and weaving industries have reduced operating rates, and orders are decreasing [32] - Inventory: There is a slight accumulation of inventory in January - February, but the pressure is not large [32] - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for 05 contract, and focus on the range of [4980 - 5100] [33] Ethylene Glycol - Summary: The valuation is relatively low. The domestic supply load has increased, while the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The port inventory is rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January - February [35] - Price Information: EG05 closed at 3614 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 101 yuan/ton [34][35] - Supply: Multiple domestic devices have changed their operating status, and overseas devices have some planned maintenance [35] - Demand: Downstream polyester and weaving industries have reduced operating rates, and orders are decreasing [35] - Inventory: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February [35] - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds, and focus on the range of [3700 - 3770] [36] Methanol - Summary: The valuation is not low, and the comprehensive profit is weak. The domestic and overseas device operating rates have decreased, and the demand is slightly weak. The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and there is a game between weak reality and strong expectation [39][40] - Price Information: The valuation of methanol is at the 16.0% quantile level in the past six months, and the East China basis is strengthening [39] - Supply: Domestic and overseas devices have reduced their operating rates, and the import volume in January is expected to be about 850,000 tons [39][40] - Demand: The demand from the olefin industry and traditional downstream industries is weak [39][40] - Inventory: The (port) inventory has been significantly reduced [40] - Strategy: The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and the demand is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Pay attention to the range of [2180 - 2240] [41] Urea - Summary: The absolute valuation is not low, and the supply is increasing with the resumption of production of previous maintenance devices. The short - term demand is relatively strong, but it will enter the off - season during the festival. The price has a ceiling and a floor under the policies of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" [43][44] - Price Information: The main contract of urea closed at 1801 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 yuan/ton [42][44] - Supply: The operating rates of coal - based and gas - based urea devices are rising, and the daily output is at a high level [44] - Demand: The winter storage is progressing steadily, and the demand from compound fertilizers and melamine industries is strong, but the export is weakening month - on - month [43][44] - Inventory: The social inventory is still at a relatively high level [43] - Strategy: The winter storage has limited positive effects, and the supply pressure is increasing. Pay attention to the range of [1760 - 1790] [45] Natural Gas - Summary: Affected by cold air, the demand has been boosted in the short - term, leading to a price rebound. However, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under pressure in the long - term [49] - Price Information: On January 19, the NG主力 contract closed at $2.702 per million British thermal units, up 0.75% [48] - Supply: In December 2025, the natural gas production of industrial enterprises above designated size increased steadily. The number of natural gas rigs in the US decreased [49] - Demand: The proportion of natural gas heavy - duty trucks in the terminal sales of heavy - duty trucks was 26.00% from January to November 2025 [49] - Inventory: As of the week of January 9, the US natural gas inventory decreased by 71 billion cubic feet [49] - Strategy: In the winter, the demand for heating provides support, but the supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the range of [3.361 - 3.991] [49] Asphalt - Summary: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, and the price has followed the decline of crude oil. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the cracking spread is gradually returning to normal but still has room for compression [54] - Price Information: The BU主力 contract closed at 3142 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [52] - Supply: The production in December 2025 increased slightly, and the operating rate has changed [53] - Demand: The demand has entered the off - season, and the shipment volume has decreased [53] - Inventory: The inventory of 70 sample enterprises has increased [53] - Strategy: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still uncertain. Pay attention to the range of [3100 - 3200] [54] Glass - Summary: The terminal real - estate demand is weak, and the cost support has weakened. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the price is expected to continue to decline [58] - Price Information: FG05 closed at 1070 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton [56][58] - Supply: The daily melting volume has slightly increased, but supply reduction is still needed [58] - Demand: The demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and the number of deep - processing orders is low [58] - Strategy: Pay attention to the range of [1040 - 1080] [58] Soda Ash - Summary: The operating rate of production enterprises has increased, and the factory inventory is gradually decreasing from a high level. The demand from the float glass industry is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [62] - Price Information: SA05 closed at 1192 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 42 yuan/ton [60][62] - Supply: The second - phase 2.8 million - ton device of Yuanxing has been put into production, and the capacity utilization rate has increased to 87% [62] - Demand: The real - estate demand is weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased, resulting in insufficient demand [62] - Strategy: Pay attention to the range of [1150 - 1200] [62]