油料日报：豆一节前补库支撑，花生供需僵持震荡-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean and peanut sectors is neutral [1][3][6] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is supported by pre - holiday restocking, while the peanut market is in a stalemate with supply - demand imbalance [1][3] - The soybean futures price decreased slightly, and the spot price was stable in the north and with accelerated trading in the south. Policy support weakened as the state - reserve purchase price did not rise further and some northern direct - purchase warehouses stopped buying [1][2] - The peanut futures price rose slightly. The overall supply in the domestic peanut market is abundant, and the market lacks directional drivers in the short term [3][4][5] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the soybean No.1 2605 contract was 4321.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 3.00 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 119, a change of + 3 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day [1] Market Information - The soybean spot market in the Northeast remained stable, with weak demand and low trading activity. Some holders were more willing to sell as the policy - supported purchase price did not increase [1] - The soybean spot market in the South was stable, and trading accelerated due to pre - holiday raw material procurement by downstream enterprises. The prices in the sales areas were also stable, and some enterprises' restocking needs provided support [2] - The state - reserve purchase price did not increase further, and some northern direct - purchase warehouses stopped buying, weakening policy support [2] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7890.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 60.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.77%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8000.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 18.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.23%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK03 - 890.00, a change of - 60.00 (+ 7.23%) from the previous day [3] Market Information - The average price of general - quality peanuts in the national market was basically stable. The average contract purchase price of oil - processing peanuts by national oil mills was 7350 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong was stable [3] - The overall supply in the domestic peanut market is abundant. Some holders were more willing to sell due to inventory pressure. The purchase prices of major oil mills for oil - processing peanuts remained stable, but there were vehicle backlogs and returns in some factories [4] - The market lacks directional drivers in the short term as the pre - holiday stocking window is narrowing and weather may affect logistics and trading [4][5] Strategies - The strategy for both the soybean and peanut markets is neutral [1][3][6] Risks - For peanuts, there is a risk of weakening demand [6]