化工日报：刚需支撑转弱，PX浮动价走弱-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral in the short term and recommended to buy on dips for hedging after a pullback in the medium term [3] Core Viewpoints - Cost side: The US has postponed military action against Iran, causing crude oil prices to retreat, but potential risks remain [1] - PX: PXN was at $331/ton in the previous trading session (a $5.75/ton increase from the previous period). Spot prices are in a C structure of -3 after the contract rollover. Floating prices are weakening. Supply is expected to increase due to improved PX profitability, and more imports are likely from arbitrage. With demand-side maintenance plans being implemented, PXN has retreated to $330/ton, but the medium-term outlook for PX remains positive [1] - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is -63 yuan/ton (a 4 yuan/ton increase from the previous period). PTA spot processing fees are 349 yuan/ton (a 12 yuan/ton increase from the previous period), and the main contract's processing fees on the futures market are 340 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period). Polyester factories' Spring Festival production cuts are being implemented, with the average polyester load in February expected to drop from around 83% to 81%, leading to increased inventory accumulation in February. In the long term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve after the end of the capacity expansion cycle [1] - Demand: Polyester operating rates are at 88.3% (a 2.5% decrease from the previous period). Weaving loads have slightly declined, with a small number of export orders recently. The rate of decline is slightly lower than expected, but it may accelerate during the concentrated holiday period around late January. Due to the firm prices of polyester yarns, the downstream market is having difficulty absorbing the cost increases, and procurement enthusiasm is low, leading to inventory accumulation in long filaments. Polyester maintenance plans for January are being implemented, with the average load in January around 88% and expected to drop to around 81% in February [2] - PF: Spot production profit is 32 yuan/ton (a 56 yuan/ton increase from the previous period). The operating rate of direct-spun polyester staple fibers remains stable, with a slight increase in equity inventory and a decrease in physical inventory. After the market correction, downstream replenishment was active, but demand is weakening, and the market will focus on inventory digestion in the future [2] - PR: The spot processing fee for polyester bottle chips is 552 yuan/ton (a 24 yuan/ton increase from the previous period). Polyester bottle chip factories' Spring Festival maintenance plans are being implemented, and inventory reduction before the Spring Festival has been smooth. The market supply of spot goods has slightly decreased. As prices decline, market trading activity has picked up again, and processing fees for polyester bottle chips have slightly recovered [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [8][9][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fees (PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [15][17] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [22][24] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [25][28][30] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures cover PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include long - filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun long - filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, long - filament DTY factory inventory days, long - filament FDY factory inventory days, long - filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rates, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rates [45][47][55] PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, the difference between raw and recycled fibers (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][71][75] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, the difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [84][86][92]