20260120申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260120

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The copper price rose 0.49% overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. After the release of optimistic sentiment, the copper price may experience a phased correction [2]. - The zinc price fell 0.04% overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, and the concentrate supply was temporarily tight, while smelting output continued to grow. After the release of optimistic sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, the zinc price may experience a phased correction [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal Price and Market Conditions - Copper: Overnight price up 0.49%, domestic previous day's futures closing price 100,990 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 110 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 12,966 dollars/ton, LME spot premium 67.55 dollars/ton, LME inventory 143,575 tons with a daily increase of 2,450 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 24,025 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 150 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 3,159 dollars/ton, LME spot premium 15.60 dollars/ton, LME inventory 488,000 tons with a daily decrease of 2,000 tons [2]. - Zinc: Overnight price down 0.04%, domestic previous day's futures closing price 24,410 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 5 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 3,234 dollars/ton, LME spot discount 41.66 dollars/ton, LME inventory 106,525 tons with a daily decrease of 175 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 142,320 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 5,750 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 18,133 dollars/ton, LME spot discount 196.02 dollars/ton, LME inventory 285,732 tons with a daily increase of 450 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 17,125 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 135 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 2,061 dollars/ton, LME spot discount 47.13 dollars/ton, LME inventory 206,350 tons with a daily decrease of 5,050 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 389,500 yuan/ton, domestic basis 26,370 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 49,258 dollars/ton, LME spot discount 108.01 dollars/ton, LME inventory 5,935 tons with a daily increase of 10 tons [2]. Demand - side Information - For copper and zinc, power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is decreasing, and the real - estate market remains weak. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment for zinc is slowing down, and the galvanized sheet inventory is at a high level [2].