稳预期信号增强

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry, indicating an expectation of returns that outperform the market benchmark by over 5% [7]. Core Insights - The effectiveness of real estate policies is more important than their quantity, with a focus on interest rate cuts and direct financial support for enterprises and residents [2]. - Recent publications in "Qiushi" emphasize the importance of managing expectations in stabilizing the real estate market, suggesting a shift from gradual measures to more decisive actions [3]. - The expectation of a stronger policy combination by 2026 is reinforced by ongoing discussions in "Qiushi" regarding real estate and urban renewal [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The minimum down payment for commercial properties has been reduced from 50% to 30%, aimed at lowering entry barriers for buyers amid significant inventory issues [4]. - The interest rate for guaranteed housing re-loans has been cut by 25 basis points to 1.25%, which narrows the gap between funding costs and net rental yields, although large-scale storage initiatives still require further policy support [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the timing and intensity of policy announcements in 2026, with a left-side layout strategy recommended [5]. - Three categories of investment targets are highlighted for potential excess returns: 1. Quality developers with low historical burdens and strong sales growth expectations [5]. 2. Commercial real estate operations, particularly shopping centers that can maintain growth in a slowing economy [5]. 3. Real estate brokerage platforms that leverage scale and brand advantages for better bargaining power [5].