碳酸锂日报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 dropped 3.83% to 147,260 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 7,000 yuan/ton to 151,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell 7,000 yuan/ton to 147,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) declined 5,000 yuan/ton to 144,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 240 tons to 27,698 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons. In January 2026, the lithium carbonate production is expected to decline 1.2% month - on - month to 97,970 tons. On the demand side, in January 2026, the production of ternary materials is expected to drop 5% month - on - month to 78,180 tons; the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to fall 10% month - on - month to 363,400 tons; the production of ternary power batteries is expected to decrease 6.15% month - on - month to 28.7 GWh, the production of lithium iron power batteries is expected to decline 9.77% month - on - month to 90.01 GWh, and the production of lithium iron energy - storage batteries is expected to increase 0.99% month - on - month to 63.15 GWh. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 337 tons to 109,942 tons [3]. - Due to capital disturbances, the lithium carbonate price has significantly corrected recently. If the basis fails to remain strong, it may lead to a spiral decline in spot and futures prices. In the absence of a clear negative feedback in demand, the main strategy is to go long on dips, while being vigilant about increased market volatility and position disturbances, and pay attention to supply - side disturbances (overseas and in Jiangxi) and right - hand opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract increased by 1,280 yuan/ton to 163,220 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 4,440 yuan/ton to 161,900 yuan/ton. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) dropped by 40 US dollars/ton to 2,060 US dollars/ton, and the prices of various types of lithium mica and lithium - phosphate - aluminum ore also declined [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 4,000 yuan/ton to 159,000 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell by 4,000 yuan/ton to 155,500 yuan/ton. The prices of different types of lithium hydroxide and lithium hexafluorophosphate also showed varying degrees of decline [5]. - The prices of some ternary precursors increased, while the prices of some ternary materials remained unchanged. The prices of different types of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the price of manganese - acid lithium (power type) increased by 500 yuan/ton [5]. - The prices of some types of battery cells and batteries increased slightly, while others remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, different types of lithium mica, and lithium - phosphate - aluminum ore from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][17]. - Price Spreads: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related price spreads from 2024 to 2026 [19][20][21]. - Precursors & Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][30]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt - acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [32][36]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from May 2025 to January 2026 [38][40]. - Production Costs: The chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2026 [43][44].