GF SECURITIES·2026-01-20 07:07Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 31.73 per share, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [3][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a projected year-on-year growth of 215%-225% for 2025, translating to approximately HKD 266-274 billion [8]. - The strong performance is attributed to a low base effect and a reversal of deferred tax losses, which has driven the company's annual performance beyond market expectations [8]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be HKD 7.52, with subsequent years showing slight declines and recoveries [9][10]. Financial Projections - The company's intrinsic value is projected to be HKD 272,123 million in 2023, decreasing to HKD 234,224 million in 2024, before recovering to HKD 256,442 million in 2025 and continuing to grow to HKD 294,410 million by 2027 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from HKD 6,190 million in 2023 to HKD 27,014 million in 2025, before declining to HKD 22,389 million in 2026 and recovering to HKD 25,200 million in 2027 [2][10]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow from HKD 1,485 million in 2023 to HKD 1,983 million in 2025, with a steady increase to HKD 2,276 million by 2027 [10]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the company's performance has outpaced the Hang Seng Index, with a notable increase of 723%-758% in net profit for the second half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [8][9]. - The report indicates that the company is benefiting from favorable market conditions, particularly in the equity market, which is expected to drive investment performance [9]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes the EV method to assign a reasonable valuation of 0.55 times PEV for the company, reflecting an improvement in operational quality and a potential recovery in valuation multiples [10]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 3.03, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [12]. Conclusion - Overall, the report presents a positive outlook for the company, driven by strong earnings growth, favorable market conditions, and a solid valuation framework, supporting the "Buy" recommendation [8][10].