流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题：为何地方债供给依然偏慢？

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity environment may face pressure due to the upcoming expiration of nearly 1 trillion yuan in pledged reverse repos, accelerated government bond issuance, and tax payment deadlines around January 20, which is a significant tax month [6][9][12] - The central bank has stated it will continue to increase liquidity injection and flexibly use various tools in open market operations to maintain ample liquidity, aiming to guide overnight rates close to the policy rate level of 1.40% [6][9][12] - The report highlights that local government bond issuance plans for January to March 2026 total 21,180 billion yuan, with 8,145 billion yuan planned for January, 4,424 billion yuan for February, and 8,611 billion yuan for March [14][37] Group 2 - The report notes that local bond supply has been notably slow, attributed to the delayed timing of local legislative sessions, which affects the actual issuance of new bonds [14][37] - As of January 18, 2026, local government bonds issued totaled 4,241 billion yuan, with 2,458 billion yuan in ultra-long bonds, accounting for 58% of the total, and 1,799 billion yuan in debt-restructuring bonds, accounting for 42% [14][37] - The report suggests that the current market conditions may lead to a focus on market-oriented issuance for ultra-long bonds, particularly in regions like Xinjiang, where the bidding spread is set significantly higher than secondary market spreads [41][43]