华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, and the price of aluminum is expected to remain high in the short term [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a total production reduction of 74.1 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown. Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills will have a daily production reduction of 1.62 tons during the shutdown [1] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% week - on - week and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [1] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [1] Aluminum - Macro - level tariff threats from the US to Europe will negatively impact aluminum demand expectations, while China's GDP growth and industrial added - value growth provide long - term support for aluminum demand [1] - Newly - invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia are ramping up production, and the daily output is increasing. The supply of domestic bauxite is gradually improving, and the inventory of alumina plants has increased by 70.36 tons [1] - The price of alumina is falling, and the willingness of alumina plants to purchase bauxite at a premium is low, so the price of domestic bauxite may decline [1] - The operating rates of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises are differentiated, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points to 60.2%. High aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption and the expansion of inventory - building willingness [1] - On January 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas increased by 1.9 tons compared to last Monday [1] - Due to macro uncertainties and weak fundamentals, but strong bullish sentiment from funds, aluminum prices are expected to remain high in the short term [2]