碳酸锂：震荡整理，警惕短期剧烈波动风险，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the lithium carbonate market will be in a state of shock consolidation, with a focus on marginal changes in cost and supply - demand [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 147,260 yuan/ton, trading volume decreased to 329,000 lots, and open interest slightly decreased to 411,000 lots. The net short position of the main funds continued, and the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 240 tons to 27,698 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon in the spot market was 151,000 yuan/ton. Upstream suppliers' willingness to sell scattered orders decreased, with some lithium salt plants showing reluctance to sell. Downstream material manufacturers mostly maintained the rhythm of on - demand procurement, and some enterprises remained cautiously wait - and - see. There is an increase in domestic regulatory uncertainty, and short - term sharp fluctuations should be watched out for [2]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Last week, the raw material price increased by more than 17% month - on - month, strengthening the cost support. The SMM total weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 52.7% (+0.98%), with the operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes increasing slightly month - on - month, and those of lepidolite and recycling decreasing slightly. The SMM total output was 22,605 tons (+70 tons), and the supply was stabilizing at a high level [3]. Demand - There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the production of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory was destocked. The production of SMM power cells decreased slightly. As of January 11, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales decreased month - on - month, while the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support the demand [3]. Inventory - Last week, the SMM sample weekly inventory was destocked again, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% (-263 tons). The total inventory days remained at 28 days, the upstream inventory days increased to 5 days, and the downstream inventory days slightly decreased to 13.8 days, showing a significant inventory structure differentiation [3]. Macroeconomic Policy Demand - side - In 2026, multiple incentives such as automobile trade - in subsidies, Fed rate cuts, and battery export tax - rebate policies will stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [4]. Supply - side - On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries, which will raise the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic lithium carbonate supply structure in the long term and raising the cost support center [4]. Industry Planning - The Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "14th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference form a synergistic positive effect, supporting the long - term balance of supply and demand [4]. Macroeconomic Environment - The central bank's structural interest - rate cuts indirectly strengthen the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [4].