农产品日报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: On Monday, corn futures prices were pressured downwards due to the decline of surrounding commodities. The prices in Northeast China remained stable, while those in North China were relatively strong. The overall view is that the corn market is in a weak and volatile state [2]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic protein meal market was weak, with rapeseed meal falling by more than 2%. The market is closely watching the pace of the resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports. The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile, with a bearish bias. The recommended strategy is a double - selling strategy [2]. - Oils: The BMD palm oil was almost unchanged. The domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend, with soybean oil and palm oil rising slightly and rapeseed oil falling by nearly 1%. The total inventory of the three major oils decreased month - on - month, and the market is expected to be volatile. The recommended strategy is to sell put options [2]. - Eggs: On Monday, egg futures prices pulled back. The spot price was relatively stable, but there was a risk of a short - term callback. The narrowing of breeding losses in the medium - to - long - term is not conducive to effective capacity reduction. The market is expected to be volatile [2]. - Pigs: On Monday, pig futures prices fell rapidly in the afternoon and then stabilized. The spot price rose. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of the sentiment of breeders on supply and the impact of funds and market sentiment on the futures market [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Market Information - Imported soybean arrivals in January decreased, and the weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills was below 2 million tons. The estimated monthly soybean crushing volume in January was about 80 billion tons, an increase of about 7 billion tons year - on - year and about 9 billion tons more than the average of the past three years [4]. - On January 16, the CNF quotes for US soybeans for February and March shipments were $473/ton, $25 - 29/ton higher than Brazilian soybeans. The landed duty - paid cost in South China was 4,183 yuan/ton, $558 - 589/ton higher than Brazilian soybeans [4]. - In December 2025, the crude steel output was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The annual output was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The steel output in December was 115.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The annual output was 1,446.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [4]. - The national grain output in 2025 was 714.88 million tons, an increase of 8.38 million tons or 1.2% year - on - year. Wheat output was basically flat, corn output increased by 2.1%, and soybean output increased by 1.3% [5]. - The GDP in 2025 was 14,018.79 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4% respectively [5]. 3. Variety Spreads - 3.1 Contract Spreads: The report presents contract spreads such as corn 5 - 9, corn starch 5 - 9, soybeans 5 - 9, etc., but no specific data or analysis is provided [6][7][9] - 3.2 Contract Basis: The report shows the contract basis of various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, etc., but no specific data or analysis is provided [16][17][20]