权益ETF，谁是主题轮动下一棒？

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In early 2026, the market sentiment has significantly warmed up, and the market has risen strongly. However, the risk - return ratio of chasing the rising market may not be high. Thematic investment remains popular, and funds from previously over - heated themes are expected to shift to other thematic sectors [1][7]. - The technology main line is still the market consensus. Funds are likely to flow into sectors such as semiconductor computing power and robotics within the technology sector, while lithium battery, non - ferrous metals, power grid, chemical, and innovative drugs are important supplementary sectors for the market [2][22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Which theme ETFs are expected to be the direction of capital return? - Market situation: In early 2026, the market has risen strongly, with commercial aerospace, AI applications, and non - ferrous metals becoming the focus. But there are signs of the market correcting irrational behaviors under regulatory guidance, and the risk - return ratio of chasing the rising market may be low. Thematic investment is still very popular. As of January 19, 2026, the cumulative net capital inflow of thematic index ETFs in the past five days exceeded 42.254 billion yuan, while industry index ETFs only had a net inflow of 9.763 billion yuan, and broad - based index ETFs showed a large net outflow [1][7]. - Analysis from the perspective of rise and valuation: Technological industries generally have high rises, while traditional cyclical industries such as liquor, coal, and breeding have relatively low rises. New energy sectors like lithium battery, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicles, as well as the chemical industry, have risen but still have room to reach previous highs. From the valuation dimension, the current valuations of the game, intelligent driving, lithium battery, and breeding sectors are low [8]. - Analysis using the quadrant chart: - First quadrant (high rise and high congestion): Mainly includes commercial aerospace, communication, AI, and non - ferrous metals. Non - ferrous metals (such as copper) and AI have relatively moderate congestion, and relevant sectors are still worthy of attention [2][17]. - Second quadrant (high rise and low congestion): There are relatively few relevant industries, mainly semiconductor equipment (including related industrial chains such as storage) and lithium battery. The sector sentiment is not over - heated, and the industrial supply - demand pattern is optimized, so they are still worthy of attention [2][17]. - Third quadrant (low rise and low congestion): Sectors such as innovative drugs, chemicals, and games have both industrial logic and market capacity, with large potential for a supplementary rise. For example, since 2026, the chemical ETF has re - entered the state of net inflow [2][17]. - Fourth quadrant (low rise and high congestion): Includes robotics, power grid equipment, consumer electronics, and software. Power grid equipment has received renewed attention due to the unexpected increase in the 14th Five - Year Plan expenditure, and robotics has also been favored by the market because Tesla's third - generation robot has entered the scheme confirmation stage [2][21]. - Specific ETF selection: For ETFs tracking the same index, products with larger scale, relatively lower fees, and smaller tracking errors are selected. Specific ETF lists are provided in the report [22].