Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-20 07:37Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the aviation industry, indicating it is entering a "golden era" with an investment rating of "Overweight" [2][3]. Core Insights - The National Civil Aviation Work Conference emphasized "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," with initial signs of reducing "involution" in the industry. The 2026 targets include a total transport turnover of 1,750 billion ton-kilometers, 810 million passenger transport, and 10.7 million tons of cargo, representing year-on-year growth of 6.7%, 5.2%, and 5.2% respectively [3]. - The global aircraft supply chain remains unhealed, with an aging fleet exacerbating supply constraints. Airbus plans to deliver 793 aircraft in 2025, while Boeing aims for 600, both below pre-pandemic levels. The backlog exceeds 15,000 aircraft, and the delivery cycle has extended to 6.8 years, leading to prolonged service of older models [3]. - Demand is bolstered by visa exemption policies, driving an increase in inbound travelers. The proportion of foreign visitors entering China under visa exemptions has stabilized above 70%. The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to see a daily average of 5.3% growth in passenger volume, with ticket prices projected to rise by 20% compared to the previous year [3]. - The report recommends continued investment in the aviation sector, highlighting the unprecedented constraints in aircraft manufacturing, high passenger load factors, and the growth of inbound and outbound travel. Key companies recommended include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, Huaxia Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [3]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The global aircraft supply chain is still recovering, with significant delivery delays and an aging fleet leading to supply constraints. The total number of passenger aircraft in China is projected to grow by only 4% in 2025, with a peak in retirements expected by 2030 [3]. Demand Side - The implementation of visa exemption policies is expected to significantly increase the number of inbound travelers, with international routes becoming the main driver of demand growth in 2026. The Spring Festival is anticipated to show a notable increase in both volume and pricing [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a strong investment in the aviation sector, citing the current supply constraints and the potential for significant improvements in airline profitability. Specific airlines and global aircraft leasing companies are highlighted as key investment opportunities [3][4].