腾讯控股：4Q广告预期稳健增长，AI小程序加码布局-20260120

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of 792 HKD [6][5][28] Core Insights - Tencent is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 13% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit increasing by 16% to 643 billion RMB. The revenue growth is driven by gaming, advertising, and fintech, with expected increases of 16%, 20%, and 9% respectively [1][5][24] - Key catalysts for Tencent in the medium term include the launch of multiple new games, improvements in advertising efficiency due to AI, and the introduction of AI tools for mini-program development on WeChat [1][3][4] Summary by Sections Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming revenue is projected to grow by 16% in Q4, with the new game "Counter-Strike: Future" expected to generate 3.5 to 7 billion RMB in its first year. The game fills a gap in the PVE shooting genre and has already attracted over 10 million players shortly after launch [2][12][16] Advertising Business - Advertising revenue is anticipated to increase by 20% in Q4, driven by budget increases from long-tail advertisers and efficiency gains from AI. WeChat's advertising capabilities are evolving, with new features enhancing social commerce [4][19] Fintech and AI Mini-Programs - Fintech revenue is expected to grow by 9%, supported by a robust performance in social retail. AI mini-programs are projected to expand significantly in 2026, with a 108% increase in monetization scale and a 75% rise in eCPM in 2025 [3][19] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for Tencent have been slightly adjusted downwards for 2025-2027, with expected adjusted net profits of 263.1 billion, 299.4 billion, and 342.5 billion RMB respectively. The target price corresponds to a PE ratio of 21.6 for 2026 [5][24][28]