Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for JD Group (9618.HK) with a current price of HKD 113.60 [2][8]. Core Views - The fourth quarter performance is expected to stabilize, supported by favorable policies and business optimizations, leading to a recovery in 2026 [2][8]. - Revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to decline by 0.7% year-on-year to RMB 344.7 billion, influenced by high base effects and the timing of the New Year holiday [8]. - The retail business structure is being optimized, with growth contributions from daily necessities and third-party (3P) ecosystems, while new business losses are on a clear reduction path [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for JD Group are as follows: - 2024: RMB 1,158.8 billion - 2025: RMB 1,301.5 billion (growth rate of 12.3%) - 2026: RMB 1,367.8 billion (growth rate of 5.1%) - 2027: RMB 1,433.6 billion (growth rate of 4.8%) [7][8]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2024: RMB 47.8 billion - 2025: RMB 26.0 billion (decline of 46%) - 2026: RMB 28.0 billion (growth of 8%) - 2027: RMB 31.3 billion (growth of 12%) [7][8]. - The report anticipates a recovery in revenue and profit in Q1 2026 due to policy implementation and consumption recovery [8]. Business Segment Insights - The report highlights that the daily necessities category is expected to maintain growth, driven by synergies from delivery services and supply chain optimizations [8]. - The performance of the electronics and digital products categories is anticipated to decline due to the reduction of government subsidies [8]. - The report emphasizes that the commission and advertising revenues are expected to grow at double-digit rates, benefiting from increased activity among third-party merchants [8].
京东集团（9618.HK）2025年四季报前瞻点评：四季度业绩筑底，政策利好与业务优化共促26年修复
Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-01-20 07:30