豆一企稳，豆粕回落偏弱

Report Overview - Date: January 20, 2026 [1] - Author: Chen Chunlei from Hongye Futures Financial Research Institute [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The main contract of soybean No. 1, 2605, is stabilizing around 4330, and the spot price is stable. The basis of soybean No. 1 is slightly strengthening, and the futures price is at a discount. The main contract of soybean meal, 2605, is continuously falling, and the spot price is slightly decreasing. The basis is strengthening, and the futures price is at a high discount [4]. - It is expected that soybean No. 1 will fluctuate strongly, and soybean meal will fluctuate weakly [6]. Key Points by Category Market Conditions of Soybean No. 1 and Soybean Meal - The main contract of soybean No. 1, 2605, is oscillating and stabilizing around 4330, and the spot price in Fujin is around 4400 yuan/ton. The basis is oscillating and slightly strengthening, and the futures price is at a discount [4]. - The main contract of soybean meal, 2605, is continuously falling. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang has dropped from 3080 yuan/ton to around 3060 yuan/ton. The basis is oscillating and strengthening, and the futures price is at a high discount [4]. Domestic Soybean Situation - There is a regional differentiation in domestic soybeans, and the remaining grain in Northeast China is accelerating to decline. As of January 16, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang has dropped to 40%, a 4% month - on - month decrease; in Anhui, it has dropped to 50%, a 1% month - on - month decrease; in Henan and Shandong, it remains unchanged at 55% and 56% respectively. Due to the differentiation in grain quality, the expectation of tight supply of high - quality domestic soybeans continues, and the inventory of Northeast soybeans may approach 30% before the Spring Festival. Recently, the state - reserve soybean auctions have been suspended [4]. Imported Soybean Situation - The auctions of imported soybeans continue, and US soybeans may enter the reserves. On January 13, Cofco auctioned 1.14 million tons of imported soybeans, all of which were sold. China continues to purchase US soybeans, and due to the high procurement cost, they may be used for reserve rotation later. The arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills has stabilized, and the port soybean inventory continues to decline. As of January 16, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.755 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase, and the port soybean inventory was 7.721 million tons, a continuous month - on - month decline [4]. US Soybean Situation - US soybeans are gradually stabilizing. The USDA's January supply - demand report is bearish. The US soybean production is slightly increased, exports are slightly decreased, but the ending inventory is significantly increased. The production of Brazilian soybeans is increased, and the global ending inventory is increased. The negative impact of the report is gradually digested, and attention should be paid to the increasing production pressure of the new - season soybeans in South America [5]. Oil Mill Situation - The operating rate of oil mills has rebounded again, and the soybean meal inventory continues to decline. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans on the futures market has recently declined. As of January 16, the operating rate of oil mills was 54.86%, a month - on - month increase; the soybean crushing volume was 1.9942 million tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6.8733 million tons, a month - on - month decline. The soybean meal production was 1.575 million tons, a month - on - month increase; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 947,200 tons, a further month - on - month decline; the unsold soybean meal contracts were 4.9848 million tons, a month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.94 days, a month - on - month increase [5]. Feed Demand Situation - Feed demand is relatively strong. In the livestock breeding sector, the pig price has rebounded, and the breeding has turned profitable. As of January 16, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 48.35 yuan per head, turning profitable; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 7.39 yuan per head, also turning profitable. The data on the inventory of breeding sows in November has not been released yet. From the situation of large - scale farms, the breeding capacity is continuously being reduced, the inventory in December continued to decline month - on - month, the culling of old pigs increased; the birth and sales volume of piglets increased month - on - month, and the replenishment sentiment improved; the inventory of commercial pigs decreased slightly month - on - month for the first time in a year. However, the profitability may slow down the pace of capacity reduction in the later stage. In the poultry sector, the egg price has rebounded, the breeding loss has narrowed, the culling of old chickens has increased, and the inventory in December decreased slightly month - on - month. Feed demand remains strong, and feed enterprises are actively stocking up [6]. Market Outlook - The sales of domestic soybeans are differentiated, with tight inventory in the Northeast and firm prices. A large number of imported soybeans are being auctioned in China, and the purchased US soybeans may enter the reserves. The port inventory is declining, the operating rate of oil mills is increasing, the soybean meal inventory is decreasing, and the demand is strong. It is expected that soybean No. 1 will fluctuate strongly, and soybean meal will fluctuate weakly [6].