——金属周期品高频数据周报（2026.1.12-2026.1.18）：M1 M2增速差已连续三个月回落-20260120

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sector [5] Core Insights - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference has been declining for three consecutive months, reaching -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [10][18] - The average daily crude steel production of key steel enterprises in early January has rebounded to levels close to mid-October 2025 [21][42] - The report highlights that the prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide priced at 13,200 CNY/ton and glass at 1,124 CNY/ton [79] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference is -4.7 percentage points as of December 2025, a decrease of 1.60 percentage points month-on-month [10][18] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 47.15 in December 2025, down 10.19% from the previous month [10][18] - The current price of London gold is 4,599 USD/ounce, reflecting a 2.00% increase [10] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production for key steel companies in early January is approximately 1.903 million tons, a 21.55% increase compared to the previous month [42] - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.48%, down 0.56 percentage points [42] - The price changes for various materials include rebar up 1.22%, cement price index down 0.94%, and rubber down 1.26% [21] Industrial Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at 73.44%, an increase of 7.55 percentage points [2] - Copper spot prices have reached a historical high, while tungsten concentrate prices have also hit a new high since 2012 [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 24,000 CNY/ton, with a profit margin of 6,787 CNY/ton [2] Price Relationships - The price ratio of London spot gold to silver has reached a new low since 2013 [3] - The price difference between rebar and iron ore is currently 3.99 [3] - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) is 200 CNY/ton, a 31.03% decrease from the previous week [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in December was 49.00%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is 1,209.85 points, up 1.25% [3] - The capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel is 75.70%, an increase of 1.30 percentage points [3] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.57%, while the industrial metals sector performed best with a 2.81% increase [4] - The PB ratio of the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the supply of steel may be reasonably constrained, leading to a potential recovery in sector profitability to historical average levels [4]