信用债周报：发行及成交规模增长，收益率多数下行-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the period from January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors all declined, with an overall change range of -8 BP to -1 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month, but the net financing amount decreased due to the increase in the maturity scale. In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and most of the yields declined. The credit spreads of medium - and short - term notes and urban investment bonds were differentiated, while those of enterprise bonds mostly narrowed. In the long run, the yields of credit bonds are still in a downward channel, but one should be cautious when chasing high, and can increase positions during adjustments. One can implement a coupon strategy through credit sinking and extending the duration, and pay attention to the coordination and transformation of allocation and trading strategies [1][53]. - The central and local governments are continuously optimizing real estate policies, which play a positive role in stabilizing the real estate market. As the market stabilizes, risk - preferring funds can consider early deployment in real estate bonds, focusing on enterprises with outstanding new financing and sales performance. The allocation focus is on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and high - quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees [2][55]. - Under the principle of coordinating development and security, the probability of urban investment bond default is very low, and it can still be a key allocation variety for credit bonds. One can pay attention to the reform and transformation opportunities of "entity - type" financing platforms, and the allocation strategy can prioritize short - to - medium - term credit sinking, while the trading strategy can choose to extend the duration of medium - and high - grade bonds [3][55]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Situation 3.1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, a total of 335 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 288.193 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7.58%. The net financing amount was 34.34 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 82.176 billion yuan. The issuance amounts of enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and short - term financing bills increased, while those of medium - term notes and private placement notes decreased. The net financing amounts of all varieties decreased, with negative net financing for enterprise bonds, medium - term notes, and private placement notes, and positive net financing for corporate bonds and short - term financing bills [12]. 3.1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors all declined, with an overall change range of -8 BP to -1 BP. By term, the 1 - year variety rate changed from -6 BP to -1 BP, the 3 - year variety from -8 BP to -1 BP, the 5 - year variety from -6 BP to -2 BP, and the 7 - year variety from -6 BP to -1 BP. By rating, the key AAA - grade and AAA - grade variety rates changed from -3 BP to -1 BP, the AA + - grade variety from -5 BP to -3 BP, the AA - grade variety from -6 BP to -3 BP, and the AA - - grade variety from -8 BP to -3 BP [13][15]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation 3.2.1 Market Trading Volume - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 931.702 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 9.52%. The trading volume of short - term financing bills decreased, while that of other varieties increased [16]. 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. For enterprise bonds, most of the credit spreads narrowed. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads were also differentiated [19][25][28]. 3.2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - and short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y, 5Y - 3Y, and 7Y - 3Y term spreads all narrowed, and most of the 3 - year rating spreads also narrowed. For AA + enterprise bonds, the term spreads mostly narrowed, and the 3 - year rating spreads all narrowed. For AA + urban investment bonds, the 3Y - 1Y and 7Y - 3Y term spreads narrowed, and the 3 - year rating spreads all narrowed [37][42][46]. 3.3 Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, there were no company rating (including outlook) adjustments [51]. 3.3.2 Default and Extended - Maturity Bond Statistics - During the same period, there were no defaults or extensions of credit bonds under any issuer [52]. 3.4 Investment Views - The overall view is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that credit bonds will continue the repair market, and one can implement a coupon strategy through credit sinking and extending the duration, while paying attention to the coordination of strategies and the impacts of policies, the equity market, and the supply - demand pattern [53].