南华期货油脂产业周报：美国生物燃料政策提振市场，油脂近期易涨难跌-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, lacking positive factors, with the core driver still in the external market of the origin. The market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, awaiting the boost from the final US energy policy. It's advisable to adopt a slightly bullish view in the oscillation, and pay attention to the decline opportunities of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean price spreads due to the weakening support for rapeseed oil [1][2]. - In the short term, the oil market shows a Back structure with near - term strength and long - term weakness. The price difference of palm oil P5 - 9 oscillates, the Y5 - 9 price difference of soybean oil rises, and the OI5 - 9 price difference of rapeseed oil is mainly in consolidation [37]. - The pogo spread of palm oil decreases slightly, and the cost of palm oil for bio - fuel remains high. The BOHO spread of soybean oil weakens, but it is expected to strengthen gradually, and the global soybean oil price has room for upward repair [52]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There is a game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil production areas. Malaysia is in the production - reduction season, but the inventory is at a seven - year high. The B50 plan in Indonesia will not be implemented in 2026, and the expansion of the palm oil bio - fuel demand is limited. The price has support, but there is a lack of trend - driving force, waiting for the price boost from India's Ramadan stocking demand [1]. - The latest news on the US biodiesel policy indicates that the existing proposal will be maintained, with the blending requirement for 2026 reaching 5.61 billion gallons and the import raw material penalty limit being cancelled, which is beneficial to the global oil market and Canadian rapeseed. The final result is expected to be announced in March [1]. - The Canada - China talks are currently optimistic. The import tax on Canadian rapeseed is expected to remain at 15%. Coupled with the global rapeseed harvest, the support for rapeseed oil weakens [1]. - Although the inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Soybean oil is being destocked due to its high cost - effectiveness, but the supply pressure is still higher than that of last year. The supply gap is not obvious, but the arrival of oilseeds in the first quarter is limited, and attention should be paid to the customs clearance progress and policies [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: There is a short - term rebound trend within the range, and there is still room for upward movement in palm oil in the medium term [15]. - Price Range: The oscillation range of P2605 is [8200 - 8900], Y2605 is [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 is [8600 - 9500] [15]. - Technical Analysis: Treat the unilateral trends of P05 and Y05 as rebounds within the range, and pay attention to whether the upper pressure levels can be broken. For arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean price spreads [15]. - Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: Adopt a short - term weak - oscillation view for the current basis; there is no recommendation for the calendar spread strategy; expect the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads to weaken [16]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The price range of soybean oil is 7600 - 8100, rapeseed oil is 8600 - 9500, and palm oil is 8200 - 8800 [19]. - Hedging Strategy: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits; refiners with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs; oil mills worried about excessive soybean imports and low soybean oil sales prices can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits [19]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices, price changes, and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in the futures and spot markets, as well as the price differences between months and varieties [20][21][22]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from January 1 - 15 increased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month; as of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly [23]. - Negative Information: The soybean crushing volume of domestic major oil mills increased last week, and it is expected to continue to rise this week; a Chinese importer purchased a ship of Canadian rapeseed, which may weaken Australia's sales; the predicted palm oil production in Malaysia for the 2025/26 season is increased; the predicted soybean exports in Brazil in 2026 will decrease, but the total supply will increase [24]. - Spot Transaction Information: Recent oil transactions remained weak. Soybean oil transactions were relatively high with an obvious year - on - year increase, palm oil had sporadic transactions, and rapeseed oil had no transactions for the time being [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data; high - frequency production and high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil; origin weather information [35]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market: The oil market was divided this week. Soybean oil and palm oil oscillated strongly, while rapeseed oil was affected by the Canada - China talks, rising and then falling back, and then oscillating. There is a lack of trend - driving force for upward movement, and attention should be paid to the US bio - energy policy and the de - stocking progress in the origin. The changes in the key profitable seats of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were generally small. Some seats slightly increased short positions in rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and reduced short positions in palm oil [34]. - Calendar Spread Structure: The oil market still shows a Back structure. The Back structure of palm oil is relatively steep, and the P5 - 9 price difference oscillates; the Y5 - 9 price difference of soybean oil rises; the OI5 - 9 price difference of rapeseed oil is mainly in consolidation [37]. - Basis Structure: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to bottom out and consolidate this week. The basis of soybean and palm oil continued to operate weakly, while the basis of rapeseed oil fluctuated more obviously but gradually weakened with the improvement of the Canada - China relationship [42]. - Cross - Variety Spread: This week, the cross - variety spread oscillated mainly. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and starts to de - stock, and the import window of Canadian rapeseed opens, the rapeseed - palm spread is still expected to weaken [46]. - Foreign Market: The foreign market rebounded this week. Palm oil became more optimistic due to Malaysia's production - reduction season, better - than - expected exports, and signs of drought. Crude oil strengthened due to geopolitical conflicts, driving US soybean oil to oscillate strongly, and the cost - effectiveness of international palm oil also improved slightly. The net long - position ratio of managed funds decreased, and the commercial short - position ratio was high, limiting the upward space of prices [48][50]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The pogo spread of palm oil decreased slightly, and the cost of palm oil for bio - fuel remained high, requiring government subsidies for the Southeast Asian bio - fuel policy. The BOHO spread of soybean oil continued to weaken, but it is expected to strengthen gradually, and the global soybean oil price has room for upward repair [52]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The origin's price quotation is firm, and domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs. The import profit of palm oil remains negative, which restricts long - term ship purchases [55]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - In December, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month, and the ending inventory increased by 7.58% month - on - month. The domestic consumption demand decreased. Although the supply pressure is still large, the better - than - expected exports are expected to promote the de - stocking process. The latest high - frequency data shows that the production in January decreased month - on - month, exports improved, and the inventory inflection point may appear in January [57]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm Oil: In the off - season of demand, transactions are difficult to improve. The origin is in the production - reduction stage, and the willingness to sell is limited. The import profit is inverted, and ship purchases are expected to remain low, waiting for a rebound after the inventory pressure in the origin eases [59]. - Soybean Oil: In the first quarter, the arrival of soybeans is at a seasonal low, and the crushing volume decreases. However, the current inventory pressure is large, and the overall supply is still relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the possible short - term supply shortage caused by the arrival rhythm [59]. - Rapeseed Oil: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed is arriving, the quantity is limited, and the inventory continues to be destocked. The spot supply remains tight, but the global rapeseed harvest and the resumption of Canada - China trade may increase the domestic rapeseed oil supply in the future [59]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish. After the Spring Festival stocking, the market boost is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils remains weak [61].