LPG液化气周报：地缘溢价回吐-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of LPG changed from 2602 to 2603, with prices showing a weak trend. The previous concerns about restricted Iranian gas exports had significantly boosted the domestic market. However, President Trump's statement eased market panic, leading to a retracement of the geopolitical premium in oil prices. Based on the current fundamental data, both the domestic production volume and imports of LPG have slightly increased, while the chemical demand has slightly declined but still remains supported. Given the high costs for downstream chemical enterprises, the negative feedback from PDH may affect the operating rate. In the future, with an expected decline in PDH operating rate and no further escalation of geopolitical events, the futures price may face downward pressure [4]. - The trading strategy suggests a weak and volatile trend for single - sided trading, while recommending a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options trading [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - The main LPG contract changed from 2602 to 2603, and prices were weak. Geopolitical concerns initially boosted the market, but Trump's statement led to a retracement of the geopolitical premium in oil prices. Supply increased slightly, and chemical demand decreased slightly but still had support. High costs for downstream enterprises may affect PDH operating rates, and future prices may face pressure [4]. Strategy - Single - sided trading: Weak and volatile. Arbitrage: Wait - and - see. Options: Wait - and - see [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Crude Oil - The previous oil price increase was a short - term rebound driven by geopolitical risks rather than a fundamental turnaround. After reaching a low in late 2025, oil prices had some upward momentum, driven by various geopolitical risks. The easing of Iranian geopolitical risks led to a retracement of the $3 - 5 per barrel premium. Globally, high inventories, stable OPEC+ and US production, and sufficient supply continue to limit the upside of oil prices [8]. Supply - The capacity utilization rate of major domestic refineries increased slightly by 0.26% to 77.24%, above the five - year average, with an expected increase in LPG supply. The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries decreased slightly by 0.32% to 61.01%, at a relatively low historical level. Overall LPG production increased slightly due to the increase in major refineries and the decrease in independent refineries [13]. Demand - Overall, chemical demand still has support, except for the low operating rate of alkylation. Attention should be paid to the PDH operating rate under continuous losses. The current PDH operating rate decreased by 2.54% to 73.07%, and is expected to decline further next week. The MTBE operating rate remains at a high level [15][17]. Inventory - Port arrivals increased slightly but remained at a low level. Ports continued to deplete inventory as imports were insufficient. Chemical demand decreased slightly, and downstream enterprises fulfilled previous low - price contracts, but overall arrivals were limited, resulting in some ports holding back inventory. Factory inventories also decreased slightly due to low supply and smooth sales. The inventory levels of tertiary stations varied by region, with stable low - level inventory in North China, a significant increase in South China, and stable inventory along the Yangtze River [20]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Price Data - Multiple price - related data charts are presented, including Brent, WTI, CP, FEI, and LPG prices, but no specific analysis is provided [24]. Spread Data - Multiple spread - related data charts are presented, such as the basis between different regions' LPG and the main contract, but no specific analysis is provided [27]. Disk Profit Data - Multiple profit - related data charts are presented, including import profits and PDH profits based on different price benchmarks, but no specific analysis is provided [30]. Spot Profit Data - Multiple profit - related data charts are presented, including import profits and PDH profits based on different price benchmarks, as well as etherification profit data, but no specific analysis is provided [34]. Supply Data - Data on the capacity utilization rates of major and independent refineries, LPG production volume, and crude oil processing volume are presented. A list of major domestic refinery maintenance plans and PDH device maintenance schedules is also provided [37][39][41]. Inventory Data - Data on the inventory levels of LPG ports and tertiary stations, as well as port capacity ratios, are presented [47].