2025年12月经济数据点评：规上工增超预期增长，全年经济目标顺利实现

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, after policy support, the endogenous driving force of the economy bottomed out and rebounded, with industrial added - value growing more than expected. The full - year economic target was successfully achieved, and in 2026, the economy is expected to have a good start under a series of policy layouts [3][5]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond target range is 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5% [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 December 2025 Economic Data Highlights - Industrial Added - Value: In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of industrial added - value of large - scale industries was 5.2%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous value, and the month - on - month growth was 0.49%, 0.05 percentage points higher than the previous value. It exceeded market expectations, in line with the PMI data. Policy support, pre - holiday inventory replenishment, and the recovery of export orders promoted the growth [3]. - Consumption and Exports: Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year - on - year in December, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous value, while exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous value, showing a continuous differentiation trend [4]. - Investment: The cumulative year - on - year decrease in fixed asset investment was 3.8%, 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous value. Real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year in 2025, and the real estate climate index continued to decline, putting continuous pressure on the investment side [4]. 3.2 Structural Highlights in the Transformation of New and Old Driving Forces - Investment Structure: Investment in high - tech service industries increased by 3.5% year - on - year, accounting for 5.6% of total service industry investment, 0.6 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 [5]. - New Quality Productivity Industries: The cumulative year - on - year growth of the added - value of large - scale high - tech manufacturing industries was 9.4%, the highest since 2022, contributing 26.1% to the growth of all large - scale industries [5]. - Equipment Manufacturing Industry: The added - value of large - scale equipment manufacturing industries increased by 9.2% year - on - year in 2025, accounting for 36.8% of the total added - value of large - scale industries, 2.2 percentage points higher than the previous year, and has exceeded 30% for 34 consecutive months [5]. 3.3 Bond Market Views - Fundamentals: The falsification of the under - expected economic recovery, combined with possible broad credit and broad fiscal policies at the beginning of 2026, will accelerate the cyclical recovery [5]. - Broad Monetary Policy: If there is a broad monetary policy (such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, bond purchases), it will be a reduction opportunity, similar to 2025 [5]. - Inflation: Inflation is rising. Attention should be paid to whether the month - on - month increase of PPI can remain positive [5]. - Funds Rate: If the month - on - month inflation continues to rise, there is a possibility of tightened funds, and the yields of short - term bonds will also start to rise [5]. - Real Estate: Real estate is not used as a means to stabilize growth this time. Similar to the situation in the United States after 2008, real estate is a lagging indicator and may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [5]. - Bonds: The target range of the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5% [5].