铁矿石：补库需求进入后半段，盘面高位风险积累

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Short - term iron ore supply - demand contradictions still need to accumulate. The restocking demand supports the spot price, and supply enters the off - season. However, the price increase is limited by industrial chain profits, and the restocking demand drive has entered the realization period. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [1] - The recommended strategy is range operation and covered call options [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Current overseas ore shipments have entered the off - season, with weekly shipments declining for three consecutive weeks. According to seasonal patterns, before mid - February, overseas ore shipments will continue to weaken month - on - month but be higher than last year due to the low base caused by the hurricane in Australia last year. Domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. Overall, the supply side is in a seasonally shrinking phase, but a more significant supply - side support requires an unexpected decline. As of January 19, Mysteel's global iron ore shipments totaled 29.298 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.511 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.004 million tons. The total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 21.64 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.692 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.28 million tons [1] Demand - Domestic demand has slightly declined but remains at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. The profitability of steel mills has stabilized after the decline in carbon element prices, and steel inventories have not shown an over - seasonal accumulation. Overall, domestic steel mill demand remains stable in the short term, the restocking demand is in the middle stage, and its marginal support is weakening [1] Inventory - Steel mill's imported ore inventory has increased for four consecutive weeks, and the pre - Spring Festival seasonal restocking by steel mills is in the second half, with the restocking support weakening. Port inventories continue to accumulate mainly due to the relatively high arrival volume. It is expected that as the arrival volume declines and restocking demand increases, the pressure on port inventory accumulation will ease [1]