瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20260120

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The overall fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of stable supply and cautious demand, with a slowdown in the inventory destocking rate of the industry [2] - In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest is 135.71%, down 8.9296% month - on - month. The sentiment in the options market is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased [2] - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are above the 0 axis, and the green bars are converging [2] - The summary of the view is to conduct light - position trading with a slightly bullish and oscillating trend, and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 160,500 yuan/ton, up 13,240 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 147,403 lots, down 1,016 lots [2] - The open interest of the main contract is 415,351 lots, up 4,020 lots; the spread between the near and far contracts is - 1,560 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] - The warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 27,681 lots, down 17 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 152,500 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 149,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan [2] - The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 8,000 yuan/ton, down 11,740 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,845 US dollars/ton, down 45 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 16,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 6,400 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,988.66 tons, up 1,933.47 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of lithium carbonate is 911.90 tons, up 152.66 tons; the monthly output of power batteries is 201,700 MWh, up 25,400 MWh [2] - The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 49%, up 2%; the price of lithium manganate is 45,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 154,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 400,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 197,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 180,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 195,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 50%, down 1% [2] - The price of lithium iron phosphate is 52,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 60%, down 3% [2] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 1,718,000 vehicles, down 162,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,710,000 vehicles, down 113,000 vehicles [2] - The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 47.94%, up 0.45%; the cumulative sales volume and year - on - year increase are 16,490,000 vehicles, up 3,624,000 vehicles [2] - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 300,000 vehicles, unchanged; the cumulative export volume and year - on - year increase are 2.615 million vehicles, up 1.331 million vehicles [2] - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 83.14%, up 3.07%; the 40 - day average volatility is 66.44%, down 1.78% [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The total open interest of call options is 106,692 contracts, up 7,406 contracts; the total open interest of put options is 144,794 contracts, up 1,185 contracts [2] - The put - call ratio of total open interest is 135.71%, down 8.9296%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.61%, down 0.0423% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In 2025, the GDP was 14,018.79 billion yuan, up 5.0% year - on - year; the per capita disposable income of national residents was 43,377 yuan, up 5.0% year - on - year [2] - In December 2025, China's lithium hydroxide exports were 6,318 tons, up 188% month - on - month and down 10% year - on - year [2] - In December 2025, the import volume of spodumene was 788,500 physical tons, equivalent to about 78,500 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) [2] - In December 2025, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, up 9% month - on - month and down 14% year - on - year; exported 912 tons, up 20% month - on - month and up 46% year - on - year [2] - In 2025, China implemented a series of more proactive macro - policies, which promoted the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure [2] - The main contract of lithium carbonate had a strong daily limit, with open interest increasing month - on - month, the spot at a discount to the futures, and the basis weakening compared with the previous day [2] - On the fundamentals, smelters in the raw material end have sufficient raw material inventories, but their purchasing attitudes are cautious due to high ore prices [2] - On the supply side, due to large fluctuations in the market, the upstream's shipping attitudes are divided, upstream inventories have accumulated, and production remains relatively stable [2] - On the demand side, downstream enterprises are sensitive to lithium prices, are cautious at high prices and mainly make purchases based on rigid demand, and actively inquire when lithium prices fall from high levels [2]