2025年全社会用电增速5%，12月火电发电降幅收窄

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the power industry, with an investment rating of "Buy" for companies with high dividend yields and stable electricity prices, as well as for integrated coal and electricity enterprises [3][49]. Core Insights - The total electricity consumption in 2025 is projected to grow by 5.0% year-on-year, with a cumulative electricity consumption of 10,368.2 billion kWh from January to December, and a December consumption of 908 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.77% [8][10]. - The contribution of the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential electricity consumption to the growth of total electricity consumption is expected to reach 50%, driven significantly by the charging and swapping service industry, as well as the information transmission, software, and IT service sectors [10][13]. - In December, the decline in thermal power generation narrowed, while the growth rates of hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power all slowed down. The industrial thermal power generation decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, but the decline was less than in November [2][34]. Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In 2025, the first industry is expected to consume 149.4 billion kWh, growing by 9.9% year-on-year; the second industry is projected to consume 6,636.6 billion kWh, with a growth of 3.7%; the third industry is anticipated to consume 1,994.2 billion kWh, growing by 8.2%; and urban-rural residential electricity consumption is expected to reach 158.8 billion kWh, increasing by 6.3% [10][8]. - The charging and swapping service industry and the information transmission, software, and IT service sectors are expected to see electricity consumption growth rates of 48.8% and 17.0%, respectively, contributing significantly to the growth of the tertiary industry [10][13]. Power Generation - In December, the total industrial power generation was 858.6 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, and an average daily generation of 27.7 billion kWh. For the entire year, the total industrial power generation reached 9,715.9 billion kWh, reflecting a growth of 2.2% [2][27]. - The growth rates for various power generation types in December were as follows: hydropower increased by 4.1%, nuclear power by 3.1%, wind power by 8.9%, and solar power by 18.2%, all showing a slowdown compared to November [34][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading thermal power companies with high dividend yields and stable electricity prices, such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, Guodian Power, Datang Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and Shaanxi Energy. It also suggests looking at companies involved in flexible thermal power transformation and the wind and solar sectors [3][49].