电力行业月报：2025年全社会用电增速5%，12月火电发电降幅收窄

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electricity sector, with a projected growth rate of 5% in total electricity consumption for 2025 [8][10]. Core Insights - Total electricity consumption in 2025 is expected to reach 103,682 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5% [8][10]. - In December, total electricity consumption was 9,080 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.77% [8]. - The contribution of the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential electricity consumption to the growth of total electricity consumption is projected to reach 50% in 2025 [10]. - The electricity consumption growth rates for different sectors in 2025 are as follows: primary industry at 1,494 billion kWh (9.9% growth), secondary industry at 66,366 billion kWh (3.7% growth), tertiary industry at 19,942 billion kWh (8.2% growth), and urban-rural residential consumption at 15,880 billion kWh (6.3% growth) [10]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - The demand for electricity is driven significantly by the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential sectors, with notable growth in the charging and battery swapping services, as well as information transmission, software, and IT services, which grew by 48.8% and 17.0% respectively [10][13]. Supply Side - In December, the decline in thermal power generation narrowed, while the growth rates of other power sources slowed down. The total industrial power generation in December was 8,586 billion kWh, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [27]. - The year-on-year decline in industrial thermal power was 3.2%, which is a narrowing of 1.0 percentage points compared to November. Other power sources such as hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar also experienced slowed growth rates [34]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend thermal power leaders and companies with stable electricity prices and coal-electricity integration, such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, Guodian Power, Datang Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and Shaanxi Energy [49]. - It also suggests paying attention to wind and solar sectors, including Xintian Green Energy, Longyuan Power, and Zhongmin Energy. For gas sectors, it highlights quality leaders like Chengran, New Hope Energy, Kunlun Energy, and China Resources Gas [49].