瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current slaughter rhythm of large-scale farms is normal, but the slaughter in some areas is affected by snowfall. After the New Year's Day, the demand for curing decreases, and the terminal consumption tolerance is limited after the recent increase in spot prices. The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has declined from the high level. Attention should be paid to the start of pre - Spring Festival stocking. Overall, the price increase has led to a decrease in procurement by slaughtering enterprises, and the spot price of live pigs has stagnated and adjusted. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand will increase, and the game will intensify. On the futures market, due to the slowdown of capacity reduction and the year - end inventory data, the market sentiment is weak, the live pig 2603 contract has fallen by 2.53%, the center of the oscillation range has continued to move down, and the futures performance is weaker than the spot [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract of live pigs is 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 155 yuan; the main contract position is 144,103 lots, a decrease of 10,286 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 433 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 48,591 lots, an increase of 704 lots [2] Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 13,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Siping, Jilin is 12,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; in Yunfu, Guangdong is 14,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main live pig basis is 1,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,9670,000 heads, a decrease of 7,130,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 3,9610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [2] Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI in the current month is 0.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,369.41 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.9 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 906.92, an increase of 0.48; the monthly output of feed is 29,779,000 tons, an increase of 209,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,431 yuan/head, an increase of 2 yuan; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is 48.35 yuan/head, an increase of 50.66 yuan; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs is 7.39 yuan/head, an increase of 18.93 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 60,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 13.5 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 39,570,000 heads, an increase of 1,230,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 573.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [2] Industry News - In December 2025, the national average price of piglets was 23.39 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 29.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. The prices in 29 monitored provinces across the country declined. Among them, the month - on - month decline in Northeast China was relatively large, with Liaoning leading the decline at 11.3%. In terms of price levels, the average price of piglets in South China was the highest at 27.89 yuan/kg, and the lowest in North China at 21.85 yuan/kg [2]