海外宏观周报：美国通胀下行趋势未改-20260120

Economic Outlook - The U.S. inflation trend remains downward, with the core CPI increasing by only 0.2% month-on-month in December, below market expectations[3] - Historical patterns suggest a high probability that the Republican Party will lose control of the House in the upcoming midterm elections, given their current lead of only 5 seats[2] Housing Market - Despite a gradual recovery in new home supply, the overall housing market remains tight, leading to sustained high home prices and weak sales[3] - The proposed policy to purchase MBS to lower housing financing costs is unlikely to significantly impact long-term interest rates, as the $200 billion scale is relatively small compared to the overall economy[3] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The primary contributors to inflation have shifted, with used cars and energy commodities being significant factors, while tariff impacts on prices have proven weaker than expected[9] - Forward-looking indicators for housing rents suggest that the downward trend in inflation is not yet over[3] Risks and Federal Reserve Insights - Risks include potential inflation rebounds driven by energy or tariff factors, which could slow the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts[4] - Federal Reserve officials express cautious optimism about inflation trends, with expectations for economic growth between 2.5% and 2.75% in 2026[25]