2026年春运系列报告之（一）：春运预售开始启动，预计需求保持旺盛

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [6]. Core Insights - The demand for air travel in China is expected to remain strong in 2026, with the Spring Festival travel period anticipated to see significant passenger flow, benefiting airline revenue management [3][6]. - The aviation industry is entering a low growth phase in supply, with structural changes in demand being a core issue. The private travel demand has remained robust over the past three years, while business travel demand is expected to stay below 2019 levels in 2024-2025 [6]. - The report forecasts a 5-6% year-on-year increase in passenger traffic for 2025, with a cumulative growth of 17% compared to 2019 [6][10]. - Despite high passenger load factors reaching historical highs, ticket prices remain at historically low levels, with domestic ticket prices expected to be lower in 2025 compared to 2024 and 2019 [6][25]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the Chinese aviation industry is experiencing a structural shift, with private demand outpacing business demand. The overall passenger flow is projected to grow significantly, with a 7% increase during the 2025 Spring Festival travel period [6][10]. Passenger Traffic and Load Factors - The estimated passenger traffic for 2025 is expected to grow by 5-6%, with domestic traffic increasing by 4-5% and international traffic seeing a nearly 30% increase [6][10]. - The passenger load factor is projected to reach 85% in 2025, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [22]. Ticket Pricing - Domestic ticket prices are expected to decrease by approximately 2-3% in 2025, with the overall ticket price trend influenced by high base numbers and competition from high-speed rail [25][32]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the 2026 Spring Festival will see sustained demand, with airlines managing capacity and pricing strategies effectively. The expected travel period is from February 2 to March 13, 2026, with pre-sales already showing significant growth [6][3]. - The report suggests that the Chinese aviation industry is on the verge of a "super cycle," driven by demand growth and structural recovery in passenger demographics, which will support ticket price and profitability increases [6]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends an "Overweight" position on several airlines, including China National Aviation, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, based on their potential for performance in the upcoming market conditions [6][37].