2025年12月经济数据点评：总量趋稳，结构有亮点

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the annual economic growth rate reached the target of 5%. Consumption and exports' contribution to GDP growth increased, while investment's contribution declined. Looking ahead to 2026, the real GDP growth rate is expected to be around 4.8%, showing a "first down then up" trend due to the high base effect. [2][7] - The bond market's pricing of the fundamentals may still exhibit an asymmetry of "being insensitive to positive news and sensitive to negative news." The view of a weak and volatile long - term bond market in the near term is maintained, and the recovery window may come later in the first quarter. [2][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 2025 Economic Data Overview - The Q4 real GDP in 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, meeting expectations, and the annual cumulative year - on - year growth rate successfully achieved the target of 5%. In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size rose by 0.4 pct to 5.2%, higher than the expected 4.9%; the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped by 0.4 pct to 0.9%, lower than the expected 1.5%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment dropped by 1.2 pct to - 3.8%, worse than the expected - 2.4%. [4] 3.2 Economic Growth Drivers - Consumption and exports' contribution to GDP growth increased to 2.6% and 1.64% respectively, while investment's contribution declined to 0.77%. There was still price pressure. The Q4 real GDP growth rate was 4.5% year - on - year, down 0.3 pct from Q3, and it declined quarter by quarter throughout the year, reaching the lowest level since 2023. The price level improved quarter by quarter, with the GDP deflator's year - on - year growth rate dropping to around - 0.67%, and the nominal GDP growth rate was 3.8% year - on - year, showing marginal improvement but remaining at a low level. [7] 3.3 Industrial Sector - In December, the industrial added value was 5.2% year - on - year, 0.4 pct higher than the previous value, and 0.49% month - on - month. The year - on - year growth rate of export delivery value turned positive to 3.2%. The service industry production index was 5% year - on - year, 0.8 pct faster than the previous month. By sector, the mining industry was a major drag, with its year - on - year growth rate dropping by 0.9 pct to 5.4%, while the manufacturing industry's year - on - year growth rate increased by 1.1 pct to 5.7%. High - end manufacturing maintained a high growth rate, with the year - on - year growth rates of pharmaceutical manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, and computer and communication equipment manufacturing accelerating by 4.6, 3.4, and 2.6 pct respectively. The output of high - tech products such as industrial robots and integrated circuits maintained a high month - on - month growth rate. In 2025, the added value of high - tech manufacturing increased by 9.4% compared to the previous year, contributing 26.1% to the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size. [7] 3.4 Investment Sector - The decline in fixed asset investment widened. Real estate investment continued to decline due to the drag of housing prices, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment weakened overall against the backdrop of enterprises' concentrated debt repayment, debt reduction, and "anti - involution." In December, the month - on - month growth rate of fixed asset investment dropped to - 15.0%, and the month - on - month decline of private investment was about - 17.2%. Real estate investment's month - on - month decline widened to - 37.5%, the sales area decreased by 16.6% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 24.2% year - on - year. The prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities generally decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened. The insufficient funds of real estate enterprises still restricted construction starts and completions, but the new construction area stabilized, and the cumulative year - on - year decline narrowed. Infrastructure investment continued to decline, with the month - on - month growth rate of broad - based infrastructure investment at - 15.9%, and the "crowding - out effect" of debt reduction may still have had an impact. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 0.6%, but in December, the month - on - month growth rate was - 10.5%, indicating that enterprises were cautious about investment against the "anti - involution" background. The capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry increased from 74.1% in Q1 to 75.2% in Q4. [7] 3.5 Consumption Sector - The growth rate of social retail sales declined, and residents' income and expenditure continued to slow down. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 0.9%, the lowest since March 2023. The off - season effect was evident, with commodity retail (0.7%) and catering (2.2%) remaining at low levels, and the year - on - year growth rate of catering above designated size at - 1.1%. The effect of the "trade - in" subsidy may have weakened, and consumption of household appliances (- 18.7%), furniture (- 2.2%), and automobiles (- 5.0%) remained under pressure. However, the retail sales of communication equipment (20.9%) maintained a high growth rate. In Q4, the real cumulative year - on - year growth rate of residents' per capita disposable income dropped by 0.2 pct to 5%, and the year - on - year growth rate of consumption expenditure dropped by 0.3 pct to 4.4%. [7] 3.6 Outlook for 2026 - The real GDP growth rate is expected to be around 4.8% in 2026, showing a "first down then up" trend due to the high base effect. On the investment side, the Central Economic Work Conference in December last year proposed to "stabilize and reverse the decline of investment." This year, the investment growth rate is expected to stop falling and stabilize with the support of the concept of "investing in people" and "two important" projects. On the production and demand side, the transformation of old and new driving forces is accelerating, and service consumption, high - end manufacturing, and exports may maintain their resilience. [2][7]