25年12月台股电子板块景气跟踪：先进制程满载，AI/HPC扩张带动结构升级

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the semiconductor industry, particularly driven by advancements in AI and high-performance computing (HPC) [1]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing robust growth, with TSMC reporting a revenue increase of 20% year-on-year in December and 32% for the entire year of 2025, driven by AI and HPC demand [2][5]. - TSMC's gross margin for Q4 2025 was 62.3%, exceeding previous guidance, attributed to cost improvements and favorable exchange rates [6]. - The report highlights a significant capital expenditure forecast for 2026, estimated between $52 billion and $56 billion, with 70%-80% allocated to advanced processes, indicating a strong commitment to meeting AI and HPC demand [6]. Summary by Sections AI Sector - The AI sector is witnessing a spending surge, with TSMC's advanced process capacity fully utilized due to strong demand from AI and HPC applications [2][5]. - The revenue from server management chips, particularly from companies like ASPEED, is also on the rise, with a 41% year-on-year increase expected for 2025 [9]. Mature Process - The mature process segment is benefiting from a reduction in 8-inch supply and support from power management and automotive applications, with companies like UMC and PSMC showing revenue growth of 2% and 22% respectively in December 2025 [2]. Memory Sector - The memory sector is experiencing price increases due to supply constraints, with Nanya Technology reporting a staggering 445% year-on-year revenue growth in December 2025 [2][5]. End-Side Chips - MediaTek continues to see growth in high-end mobile platforms, with a 23% year-on-year revenue increase in December 2025, supported by strong demand for flagship chips [2]. Passive Components - The demand for passive components is driven by AI server growth, with Yageo reporting a 30% year-on-year increase in December 2025 [2]. Testing Equipment - Companies like King Yuan Electronics are transitioning to AI chip testing platforms, with a 33% year-on-year revenue increase in December 2025, driven by the demand for GPU and ASIC testing [11].