瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the RB2605 contract increased in position and declined. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the economic growth forecasts for China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan in 2026. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar remained at a low level with a capacity utilization rate of 41.72%; the apparent demand changed from a decline to an increase, and the inventory decreased slightly. Overall, the cost - side support continued to weaken as furnace materials declined, the market trading was sluggish, and the spot trading volume shrank. The long positions of mainstream holdings decreased again. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were running below the 0 - axis. The view is for a volatile and bearish trend, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,111.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan; the position of the RB main contract was 1,741,235 lots, an increase of 13,280 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 57,265 lots, an increase of 10,794 lots. The spread between the RB5 - 10 contracts was - 48 yuan/ton, unchanged. The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 49,244 tons, a decrease of 31,304 tons. The spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 165 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,310.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,170.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 199.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 0.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 793.00 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 17.00 yuan. The price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,160.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,950.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 165.5081 million tons, an increase of 2.7087 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 404,800 tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.502 million tons, an increase of 43,400 tons. The inventory of steel billets in Tangshan was 1.4931 million tons, an increase of 85,600 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.82%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.46%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.903 million tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons. The capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 41.72%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.4266 million tons, a decrease of 52,700 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 2.9541 million tons, an increase of 52,300 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 71.88%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 68.18 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 14.34 million tons, an increase of 590,000 tons. The net export volume of steel products was 10.78 million tons, an increase of 1.3 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.80%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment was - 17.20%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 2.20%, a decrease of 1.10 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.5989 billion square meters, a decrease of 38.24 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 587.7 million square meters, a decrease of 53.13 million square meters. The area of unsold commercial housing was 402.36 million square meters, a decrease of 8.75 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In 2025, the fiscal deficit ratio was about 4%, an increase of one percentage point compared with the previous year. The new government debt scale was 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared with the previous year, exceeding the average level of previous years. On January 20, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development issued the "Notice on Several Measures to Further Support Urban Renewal Actions", proposing that for the development of industries and sectors supported by the state using existing land and real - estate resources, a transition - period policy of not changing the land - use subject and planning conditions within a certain period could be enjoyed, and the transition period was generally no more than 5 years [2].