瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2170 - 2270 in the short - term. Although the methanol inventory at ports has decreased, the total inventory is still at a relatively high level. Short - term attention should be paid to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货量. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's weekly average operating rate is expected to decline, and currently, the MTO devices are operating stably with no obvious change plans [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2206 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread of methanol is - 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. - The position volume of the main methanol contract is 830923 hands, a decrease of 27596 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of methanol is - 168939 hands. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 8355, unchanged from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The price in Inner Mongolia is 1832.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 367.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 12 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 261 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton. The CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 262 euros/ton, an increase of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 61 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.11 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 103.89 tons, a decrease of 8.44 tons. The inventory at South China ports is 39.64 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons. - The import profit of methanol is - 13.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.21 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 450900 tons, an increase of 3200 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.11%, a decrease of 0.31% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 34.23%, an increase of 0.16%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether is 3.74%, an increase of 0.78%. - The operating rate of acetic acid is 78.4%, an increase of 1.41%. The operating rate of MTBE is 67.57%, unchanged. - The operating rate of olefins is 85.77%, a decrease of 2.29%. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 957 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.27%, an increase of 0.42%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of methanol is 22.09%. - The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.86%, a decrease of 3.35%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of methanol is 22.19%, a decrease of 3.25% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of January 14, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 45.09 tons, a slight increase of 0.32 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 23.78 tons, a slight increase of 0.03 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. - As of January 14, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 143.53 tons, a decrease of 10.19 tons compared to the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 8.44 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 1.75 tons. The significant reduction in port inventory was mainly due to the small total unloading volume. - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 86.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38%. The MTO device of Zhejiang Xingxing entered the parking state, and some enterprises were still operating at reduced loads, causing the industry's operating rate to continue to decline passively [2].