Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The US corn report is bearish, but the global corn supply pressure is weakening, and US corn has stabilized and rebounded. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2,142 yuan. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports is stable, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply of corn in North China has decreased due to weather, the corn spot price has risen, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The domestic breeding demand is stable, the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased, and the corn spot price is relatively stable in the short term. The supply of corn in the Northeast is still low, the price is strong, farmers are still reluctant to sell, the port inventory is low, and the purchase price at northern ports is stable today. The 03 contract is in high - level oscillation, and the spot basis has strengthened. The market is currently concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][6]. - The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has decreased, the spot price of corn in Shandong has risen, the starch price in Shandong is around 2,780 yuan, and the spot price of starch in the Northeast is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has decreased. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product prices are still strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is also strong, and enterprise losses have intensified. The 03 starch contract is oscillating narrowly following corn. The North China corn price is relatively stable in January, the starch spot price will still rise, but the futures price is at a large premium to the spot price, so it is expected that the 03 starch contract will oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. - It is expected that US corn will oscillate at the bottom. The North China corn price continues to rise due to weather, the Northeast corn price is relatively stable, and farmers' reluctance to sell is starting to ease. The spot price is still relatively stable in the short term, and the purchase price at northern ports is stable today. The North China wheat price is strong due to weather, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn is starting to widen. The market is currently trading on the increase in corn sales in North China before the Spring Festival, and there is still selling pressure on Northeast corn later. The rebound space for corn spot is limited, and there is room for the 03 corn contract to fall [8]. Summary by Directory First Part: Data - Futures Disk: For corn futures contracts C2601, C2605, and C2509, the closing prices are 2,243, 2,272, and 2,291 respectively, with price changes of 2, 0, and - 2, and price change rates of 0.09%, 0.00%, and - 0.09%. The trading volumes are 624, 171,755, and 7,344, with change rates of 8.33%, 28.37%, and - 10.97%. The open interests are 714, 657,841, and 57,729, with change rates of 66.82%, 0.98%, and - 0.77%. For corn starch futures contracts CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509, the closing prices are 2,572, 2,586, and 2,616 respectively, with price changes of - 1, - 4, and - 4, and price change rates of - 0.04%, - 0.15%, and - 0.15%. The trading volumes are 4, 14,332, and 161, with change rates of DIV/0!, 41.28%, and - 15.26%. The open interests are 1, 61,040, and 2,916, with change rates of DIV/0!, 5.57%, and - 1.12% [2]. - Spot and Basis: For corn, the spot prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are 2,150, 2,200, 2,360, 2,312, 2,335, 2,410, and 2,450 respectively. The price changes are 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, - 10, and - 10. The basis values are - 141, - 91, 69, 21, 63, 119, and 159. For starch, the spot prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade are 2,730, 2,700, 2,700, 2,860, 2,800, 2,900, and 2,800 respectively. The price changes are all 0. The basis values are 144, 114, 114, 274, 214, 314, and 214 [2]. - Spreads: For corn inter - delivery spreads, C01 - C05 is - 29 with a change of 2, C05 - C09 is - 19 with a change of 2, and C09 - C01 is 48 with a change of - 4. For starch inter - delivery spreads, CS01 - CS05 is - 14 with a change of 3, CS05 - CS09 is - 30 with a change of 0, and CS09 - CS01 is 44 with a change of - 3. For cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 is 325 with a change of - 2, CS01 - C01 is 329 with a change of - 3, and CS05 - C05 is 314 with a change of - 4 [2]. Second Part: Market Judgment - Corn: The US corn report is bearish, but supply pressure is weakening. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports is stable, and the Northeast corn spot price is stable. The North China corn supply has decreased due to weather, the price has risen, and the price difference with Northeast corn has widened. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, the North China wheat price is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn is still large. The domestic breeding demand is stable, the downstream feed enterprise inventory has increased, and the corn spot price is relatively stable in the short term. The Northeast corn supply is low, the price is strong, farmers are reluctant to sell, the port inventory is low, the northern port purchase price is stable, and the 03 contract is oscillating at a high level with a strengthened spot basis. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and downstream inventory - building [4][6]. - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, the Shandong corn spot price has risen, and the Northeast starch spot price is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has decreased to 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 0.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 21.5%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product prices are strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is also strong, and enterprise losses have intensified. The 03 starch contract is oscillating narrowly following corn. The North China corn price is relatively stable in January, the starch spot price will rise, but the futures price is at a large premium to the spot price, so the 03 starch contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. - Trading Strategies: It is expected that US corn will oscillate at the bottom. The North China corn price continues to rise due to weather, the Northeast corn price is relatively stable, and farmers' reluctance to sell is starting to ease. The spot price is still relatively stable in the short term, and the northern port purchase price is stable today. The North China wheat price is strong due to weather, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn is starting to widen. The market is trading on the increase in North China corn sales before the Spring Festival, and there is still selling pressure on Northeast corn later. The rebound space for corn spot is limited, and there is room for the 03 corn contract to fall. For trading strategies, for the 03 US corn, there is support at 430 cents per bushel. Short the 03 corn contract with a light position and short the 03 starch contract on rallies. Start reverse arbitrage for the 35 starch contract [8][9][10]. Third Part: Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - put spread strategy in the short term and conduct rolling operations [11]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of the ex - warehouse price of corn at northern ports, the basis of the corn 05 contract, the 5 - 9 spread of corn, the 5 - 9 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 05 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 05 contract, which visually show the price trends and relationships of relevant products [14][15][19].
玉米淀粉日报-20260120
Yin He Qi Huo·2026-01-20 09:22