瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current national commercial inventory of cotton continues to rise, and market supply is relatively sufficient. Additionally, port pick - up has increased, and Brazilian cotton has started to arrive in large quantities, leading to a continued increase in inventory. In terms of downstream demand, the price of high - count yarn is firm, but overall market demand is weak. However, driven by costs, yarn prices remain stable. Moreover, the growth rate of China's textile and clothing exports in December rebounded compared to the previous month, still supporting the market. On the market, the previous expectation of a decrease in cotton planting area has been reflected in the market, and it is expected to be in an adjustment state in the short term [2] Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 14,525 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 20,500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 150,374 lots, an increase of 10,718 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 1,509 lots, a decrease of 144 lots. - The main contract position of cotton is 788,099 lots, a decrease of 12,920 lots; the main contract position of cotton yarn is 16,289 lots, an increase of 1,511 lots. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 9,647 sheets, a decrease of 11 sheets; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 70 sheets, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex: 3128B) is 15,856 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff) is 12,582 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,059 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff) is 13,722 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,547 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 5,444 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850 thousand tons [2] Industrial Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 120 thousand tons, an increase of 30 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 150 thousand tons, an increase of 10 thousand tons. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 2,158 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan; the national monthly commercial inventory of cotton is 468360 tons, an increase of 175300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days. - The monthly output of cloth is 2.81 billion meters, an increase of 0.19 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2039 thousand tons, an increase of 38 thousand tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 11,593,686 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 12,275,733,101,731.408 thousand US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 12%, a decrease of 1.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 12%, unchanged. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 14.15%, an increase of 0.13%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.16%, an increase of 0.04% [2] Industry News - Mysteel research shows that the national commercial inventory of cotton is on the rise. As of January 16, 2026, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 5.6863 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1133 million tons (a growth rate of 2.03%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 4.7063 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0222 million tons (a growth rate of 0.47%); the commercial cotton in the inland area is 0.533 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0436 million tons (a growth rate of 8.91%). - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) market was closed on Monday due to the US Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday [2]