瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term L2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support around 6540 on the daily K - line [2][3] - PE production and capacity utilization are expected to increase this week, while the downstream agricultural film's operating rate may maintain a seasonal downward trend and the peak stocking period for packaging films has passed, with limited demand follow - up [2] - The cost of the oil - based process has risen and losses have deepened; the cost of the coal - based process has decreased and profits have expanded [2] - The international oil price may be disturbed by geopolitical factors due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran situation [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures prices of polyethylene decreased, with the futures main - contract closing price at 6640 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the 1 - month contract closing price at 6706 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 5 - month contract closing price at 6640 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; and the 9 - month contract closing price at 6664 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 384,155 lots, down 27,783 lots, and the open interest was 495,272 lots, up 9,808 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was 66, up 13 [2] - The long positions, short positions, and net long positions of the top 20 futures holders were all 0, with the long positions down 457,479 lots, the short positions down 491,959 lots, and the net long positions up 34,480 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,693.91 yuan/ton, down 80.87 yuan, and in East China was 6,836.28 yuan/ton, down 88.14 yuan [2] - The basis was 53.91, down 53.87 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 58.13 US dollars/barrel, down 0.06 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 548.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 701 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 711 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate was 81.59%, down 2.07 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging films was 48.15%, down 0.81 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 29.33%, down 0.17 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural films was 36.93%, down 0.96 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 17.1%, up 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.81%, up 0.02 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.36%, down 1.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.32%, down 1.15 percentage points [2] Industry News - From January 9th to 15th, China's polyethylene production was 669,800 tons, a decrease of 2.47% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 81.6%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points from the previous period [2] - From January 9th to 15th, the average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.3% compared with the previous period, among which the operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 1.0% and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 0.8% [2] - As of January 14th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 350,300 tons, a decrease of 11.41% from the previous week; as of January 9th, the social inventory of PE was 484,300 tons, a decrease of 0.11% from the previous week [2] - From January 9th to 15th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 4.29% to 7,217 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 531 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 2.57% to 6,559 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 183 yuan/ton to 217 yuan/ton [2]