瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, in the domestic market, as the Spring Festival approaches and the purchasing efforts of the China Grain Reserves Corporation increase, the selling sentiment of farmers in the Northeast production area has improved, and some farmers and traders are actively involved in the grain - trading process. Deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast have low inventories and are increasing prices to stock up. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the arrival volume at enterprise gates is low. Although the market supply has increased slightly, due to processing losses and product inventory backlogs, enterprises' purchasing attitudes are cautious, and purchase prices are slightly adjusted. The corn futures market is supported by strong spot prices and is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2]. - For corn starch, as of January 14, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises in China is 110000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 25000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 2.22%, and a year - on - year increase of 21.48%. The overall supply pressure still exists. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for starch in downstream industries such as starch sugar and paper - making has increased. The impact of pre - Spring Festival downstream stocking on corn starch prices should be monitored. The starch futures market is boosted by the strong performance of corn and is expected to be observed in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of corn starch futures is 2550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 19 yuan/ton, and the corn starch monthly spread (3 - 5) is - 36 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [2]. - The futures trading volume of the active contract of yellow corn is 1055982 lots, with a decrease of 17234 lots; the futures trading volume of the active contract of corn starch is 200527 lots, with an increase of 4084 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of corn are - 143698 lots, and those of corn starch are - 40964 lots, with an increase of 946 lots [2]. - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 51272 lots, and those of corn starch are 12477 lots, with no change [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 325 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 425 cents/bushel, and the total position of CBOT corn is 1613386 contracts, with an increase of 75658 contracts [2]. - The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 93535 contracts, with a decrease of 33423 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2369.41 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2570 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The fob price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2330 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang is 2750 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2074.24 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 3.07 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang is 2730 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The international freight of imported corn is 45 US dollars/ton, with no change; the basis of the main contract of corn starch is 15 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the main contract of corn is 89.41 yuan/ton, and the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 444 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The average spot price of wheat is 2525.67 yuan/ton, and the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 597 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 29 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 201 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the United States is 425.53 million hectares, and the predicted output is 36.44 million tons, with an increase of 0.55 million tons [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in Brazil is 131 million hectares, and the predicted output is 22.6 million tons [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in Argentina is 53 million hectares, and the predicted output is 7.5 million tons [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in China is 295 million hectares, and the predicted output is 44.3 million tons [2]. - The predicted output of corn in Ukraine is 32 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports is 76.1 million tons, with a decrease of 1.1 million tons; the inventory of deep - processed corn is 359 million tons, with an increase of 5 million tons [2]. - The corn inventory in northern ports is 156 million tons, with a decrease of 19 million tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 110 million tons, with a decrease of 2.5 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 36 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 19170 tons, with an increase of 6390 tons [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 2977.9 million tons [2]. - The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 18 yuan/ton, with no change; in Hebei, it is 72 yuan/ton, with no change; in Jilin, it is - 53 yuan/ton, with an increase of 7 yuan/ton [2][3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of sample feed corn are 31.15 days, with an increase of 1.05 days [2]. - The consumption of deep - processed corn is 135.59 million tons, with a decrease of 2.58 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 58.02%, with a decrease of 4.02%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 57.65%, with a decrease of 1.72% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 10.94%, with a decrease of 0.47%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.49%, with no change [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.74%, with a decrease of 0.93%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.74%, with a decrease of 1.09% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of January 15, the harvesting progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season reached 1.6%, higher than 0.5% in the previous week but lower than 4.1% in the same period last year [2]. - As of January 15, the sown area of the second - season corn in Brazil in the 2025/26 season reached 1.1% of the expected area, up from 0.2% a week ago. The sowing progress in Mato Grosso is leading, followed by Paraná [2]. - The USDA monthly supply - demand report shows that the yield per acre of US corn in the 2025/26 season has been raised from 186 bushels/acre to 186.5 bushels/acre, and the output forecast has been raised to 17.021 billion bushels, which is higher than the upper limit of analysts' forecast ranges. The report is overall bearish, causing a significant decline in US corn prices [2].