Zhongyuan Securities·2026-01-20 09:29Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the automotive industry [5] Core Insights - The automotive industry in China is expected to achieve record production and sales in 2025, driven by policies encouraging vehicle trade-ins and the release of new models [5] - The passenger vehicle market is showing steady growth, with production and sales surpassing 30 million units in 2025, and domestic brands capturing nearly 70% of the market share [5] - The commercial vehicle market is recovering, with production and sales exceeding 4 million units, particularly strong performance in the new energy heavy truck segment [5] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) are experiencing rapid growth, with production and sales reaching approximately 1.66 million units in 2025, accounting for nearly 50.8% of domestic sales [5] - The report highlights two main investment themes: the acceleration of L3 level autonomous driving commercialization and the transition of automotive technology towards robotics and liquid cooling systems [5] Industry Performance Review - As of January 20, 2026, the automotive (CITIC) industry index increased by 4.07%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.15 percentage points [10] - Over 75% of automotive stocks saw an increase in value, with notable performers including Jiaoyun Co., Saifu Technology, and Siliang Zhidu [16] - The automotive sector's PE (TTM) is at 34.4 times, ranking 15th among 30 CITIC primary industries, while the PB (LF) is at 2.7 times, ranking 80th percentile [19] Key Data Tracking Industry Overview - In 2025, the total production and sales of automobiles reached 34.53 million and 34.40 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% [27] Passenger Vehicles - Passenger vehicle production and sales for 2025 reached 30.27 million and 30.10 million units, with year-on-year growth of 10.2% and 9.2% [41] Commercial Vehicles - Commercial vehicle production and sales for 2025 totaled 4.26 million and 4.30 million units, reflecting year-on-year increases of 12% and 10.9% [56] New Energy Vehicles - New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.66 million and 1.65 million units in 2025, with a market share of 47.9%, up 7.01 percentage points year-on-year [67]