机构行为周度跟踪 20260118：关注 30Y 国债借入量大超季节性-20260120

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in the borrowing volume of 30Y government bonds over the past 30 trading days, with a year-on-year growth of 133% to 278% for active and secondary active bonds, indicating a strong demand for long-term bonds as a hedging and position adjustment tool in a volatile market [7][8][10] - The borrowing volume of 10Y government bonds showed a pattern of "year-end increase, early-year decline," with a year-on-year increase of 135.34% in December, followed by a decline of 22.54% in January, suggesting a cooling demand for mid-term bonds [10][12] Group 2 - In the funding market, there is a trend of expanding borrowing and contracting lending, with an overall decrease in leverage ratios across institutions, while overnight trading ratios have increased [14][15] - The primary market for government and policy financial bonds has shown mixed performance, with variations in bidding multiples and spreads between primary and secondary markets [19][20] Group 3 - The secondary market has seen active trading, particularly in 30Y government bonds, with a notable increase in turnover rates, while trading behaviors among different types of institutions have diverged [25][26] - Large banks have shifted to net buying in the interbank certificate of deposit market, while securities companies have significantly increased net selling [27][29]