有色偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Copper - Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly with little change in open interest. Due to the Greenland issue and rising expectations of EU - US tariffs, market risk appetite declined, causing the non - ferrous sector to be weak overall. Copper, with strong macro properties, was resilient due to the strength of gold and silver. In the industrial aspect, under the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, the month - spread continued to weaken, and the 02 - 03 contract closed approaching 300 yuan/ton. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 100,000 yuan mark [6]. Aluminum - Today, Shanghai aluminum weakened in the morning and stabilized in the afternoon with a decline in open interest. The Greenland issue and EU - US tariff expectations led to a decline in market risk appetite and a weak non - ferrous sector. On the industrial side, SMM reported that new electrolytic aluminum production capacities at home and abroad were continuously ramping up, and the daily output was steadily increasing. However, the demand side was suppressed by high aluminum prices, with a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise. Continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 24,000 yuan mark [7]. Nickel - Today, Shanghai nickel weakened in the morning, approaching the 140,000 yuan mark at one point, and stabilized in the afternoon. The macro factors of the Greenland issue and EU - US tariff expectations reduced market risk appetite and weakened the non - ferrous sector. In the industrial aspect, the port inventory of nickel ore decreased seasonally from a high level, while the exchange nickel inventory continued to accumulate at a high level. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 140,000 yuan mark [8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics Copper - SMM reported that the LME copper futures price had fallen from its historical high recently, and Goldman Sachs pointed out that the upside space for copper prices might be limited in the near term and predicted a larger decline in the future [10]. Aluminum - Affected by the snowstorm, the bauxite mines in Henan Xin'an area suspended production on the night before yesterday and had gradually resumed work. Due to blocked road transportation, the ore supply decreased by about 80% and was expected to gradually resume shipping tomorrow. SMM would continue to monitor the resumption of production and transportation in the affected mining areas. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.8% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. In 2025, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 2.547 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 38,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.3% and a year - on - year increase of 194.3%. In 2025, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 298,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 145.7%. In December 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 152,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 61.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. In 2025, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 2.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% [11]. Nickel - On January 20, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 140,900 - 151,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 146,350 yuan/ton, a 450 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 8,250 yuan/ton, a 400 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 300 - 500 yuan/ton [12]. Relevant Charts Copper - The report provides charts on copper basis, copper month - spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][15][16]. Aluminum - The report includes charts on aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), aluminum rod inventory, Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum month - spread [25][27][33]. Nickel - The report presents charts on nickel basis, nickel month - spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][39].