钢材&铁矿石日报：产业矛盾累积，钢矿偏弱运行-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar declined weakly, with a daily decline of 1.18%, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. Although the demand for rebar has improved, its sustainability is questionable. The supply is weakly stable, and the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season and will continue the weak and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.97%, showing a contraction in volume and open interest. Currently, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil are running smoothly under the situation of high supply and demand, but there are concerns about demand. Once the demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, and the price will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore was running weakly, with a daily decline of 1.00%, showing a contraction in volume and open interest. At present, although the supply of iron ore has decreased, the inventory is high, and the demand is weakly stable. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak. Coupled with the disturbance of a steel mill production accident over the weekend, the weight of the industrial logic has begun to increase. The iron ore price is under pressure in the short term. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the newly - added government debt scale was 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared with the previous year. The fiscal deficit rate was about 4%, an increase of one percentage point compared with the previous year, exceeding the average level of previous years [7]. - In 2025, the air - conditioning market showed a trend of falling prices and rising sales volume, with the retail rhythm advancing, and the annual trend was high in the front and low in the back. In 2026, due to the new national subsidy policy and the Spring Festival holiday in mid - February, the industry's production scheduling was seasonally misaligned. The production scheduling plan in February decreased by double - digits year - on - year. The domestic sales production scheduling was 603,000 units, a year - on - year decline of 13.8%, and the export production scheduling was 751,000 units, a year - on - year decline of 12.7% [8]. - Australia postponed the release of the basic fact report and final arbitration recommendation for the sunset review of anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations on precision steel pipes imported from China [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,250 yuan, 3,170 yuan, and 3,329 yuan respectively, with a decrease of 10 yuan, 10 yuan, and 7 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270 yuan, 3,180 yuan, and 3,300 yuan respectively, with a decrease of 10 yuan, 10 yuan, and 8 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,950 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,110 yuan. The volume - screw price difference was 20 yuan, and the screw - scrap price difference was 1,140 yuan, with a decrease of 10 yuan [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 794 yuan, a decrease of 8 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 773 yuan, with no change. The sea freight from Australia was 7.47 yuan, an increase of 0.24 yuan; the sea freight from Brazil was 19.61 yuan, an increase of 0.20 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 106.09 yuan, a decrease of 0.83 yuan. The iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 104.45 yuan, a decrease of 1.70 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,111 yuan, with a decline of 1.18%. The highest price was 3,147 yuan, the lowest price was 3,110 yuan, the trading volume was 936,583 lots, a decrease of 119,659 lots, and the open interest was 1,741,235 lots, an increase of 13,280 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,276 yuan, with a decline of 0.97%. The highest price was 3,307 yuan, the lowest price was 3,275 yuan, the trading volume was 471,822 lots, a decrease of 14,947 lots, and the open interest was 1,486,145 lots, a decrease of 15,864 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 789.5 yuan, with a decline of 1.00%. The highest price was 798.0 yuan, the lowest price was 778.0 yuan, the trading volume was 362,703 lots, a decrease of 33,598 lots, and the open interest was 586,412 lots, a decrease of 29,929 lots [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - Steel Inventory: The report presents the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including historical data from multiple years [14][15][20]. - Iron Ore Inventory: It shows the inventory of 45 ports in the country, including the inventory volume, inventory change, and seasonal inventory. It also presents the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills and the iron concentrate powder inventory of domestic mines [22][23][26]. - Steel Mill Production Situation: It includes the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the profit - making steel mill ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29][32][31]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply and demand of rebar have changed. The production of construction steel mills is weakly stable, and the weekly output of rebar has decreased slightly. However, the profit per ton of the variety is acceptable, and there is still a possibility of increasing production in the future. The supply is unlikely to continue to shrink, and the positive effect of low supply is not strong. The demand for rebar has improved, with a weekly increase of 153,800 tons, but the high - frequency daily trading volume is sluggish, and its sustainability is questionable. The demand will continue the seasonal weakness and continue to drag down the steel price. In the short term, it will continue the weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [37]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil is stable, and the inventory reduction has expanded. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil has decreased by 21,500 tons. The supply has shrunk again but is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory is significantly higher than in previous years, with large supply pressure. The demand for hot - rolled coil has good resilience, with a weekly increase of 10,400 tons in apparent demand. However, the contradictions in cold - rolled products are accumulating, and the export performance is average, so there are concerns about the demand. Once the demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, and the price will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [37]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken, and the inventory has increased significantly. The production of steel mills is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has weakened. The daily average molten iron output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly last week. The profit situation of steel mills has improved limitedly, and the contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating. The ore demand will remain weak, and the relatively positive factor is that steel mills will restock before the festival. The arrival at ports has declined from a high level, and the shipments of miners have decreased again. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will decline. The domestic ore supply is increasing, and the ore supply continues the seasonal contraction. The short - term iron ore price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [38].