山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term safe - haven factor shows a shift from trade - war safe - haven to rising geopolitical risks. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts. - Geopolitical risks are rising as Trump threatens to impose tariffs on eight European countries, and the EU may retaliate. - In terms of monetary attributes, the US December CPI increase met expectations, but household food and rent expenditures increased. December employment growth almost stalled, and the decline in the unemployment rate alleviated concerns about the deterioration of the labor market. The Fed cut interest rates in December with differences and may cut rates only once next year. The market expects a 95% probability that the Fed will not cut rates in January 2026, and the next cut may be in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. - In terms of commodity attributes, silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong. Palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating strongly in the short term, oscillating at a high level in the medium term, and rising step - by - step in the long term. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $4601.10 per ounce, down $19.40 (-0.42%) from the previous day and up $82.70 (1.83%) from last week. London gold was at $4611.05 per ounce, up $0.20 (0.00%) from the previous day and up $117.20 (2.61%) from last week. Shanghai gold futures closed at 1060.16 yuan per gram, up 8.36 yuan (0.79%) from the previous day and up 32.98 yuan (3.21%) from last week. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 12,292 lots. The SPDR gold ETF decreased by 3.15 tons (-0.33%) compared to last week. [2] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $89.95 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day and up $4.79 (5.63%) from last week. London silver was at $93.01 per ounce, up $2.21 (2.43%) from the previous day and up $8.94 (10.63%) from last week. Shanghai silver futures closed at 23,062 yuan per kilogram, down 127 yuan (-0.55%) from the previous day and up 2058 yuan (9.80%) from last week. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds decreased by 2613 lots. The iShare silver ETF decreased by 274.89 tons (-1.68%) compared to last week. [4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2272.90 per ounce, down $47.20 (-2.03%) from the previous day and up $341.40 (17.68%) from last week. London platinum was at $2208 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day and up $302 (15.84%) from last week. Platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 29.30 yuan (4.46%) from the previous day and up 144.35 yuan (26.60%) from last week. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged. [7] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1821 per ounce, down $143 (-7.28%) from the previous day and up $96 (5.57%) from last week. London palladium was at $1837 per ounce, up $194 (10.56%) from the previous day and up $194 (11.81%) from last week. Palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 49.40 yuan (-8.54%) from the previous day and up 52.45 yuan (11.01%) from last week. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged. [10] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value. - Discount rate: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value. - Reserve balance interest rate (IORB): 3.65%, down 0.25% from the previous value. - Fed total assets: $6632.72 billion, up $8.162 billion (0.00%) from the previous value. - M2 (year - on - year): 4.27%, down 0.37% from the previous value. - Ten - year US Treasury real yield: 2.50%, up 0.03 (1.21%) from the previous day and down 0.01 (-0.40%) from last week. - US dollar index: 99.05, down 0.32 (-0.32%) from the previous day and up 0.15 (0.15%) from last week. [11]