橡胶甲醇原油：偏空因素主导，能化偏弱运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Rubber: The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 on Tuesday showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating downward, and closing slightly lower. The price center of the contract during the session moved down slightly to below 15,620 yuan/ton. At the close, the price closed 0.89% lower at 15,620 yuan/ton. The premium spread between the May and September contracts widened to 45 yuan/ton. As the previous positive factors were gradually digested, the rubber futures showed a profit-taking trend, and it is expected that the market will maintain a weak and fluctuating pattern in the future [6]. - Methanol: The domestic methanol futures contract 2605 on Tuesday showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The price reached a high of 2,219 yuan/ton and a low of 2,183 yuan/ton. At the close, the price closed 1.21% lower at 2,206 yuan/ton. The discount spread between the May and September contracts narrowed to 19 yuan/ton. In the stage of multi - empty divergence, the methanol futures may maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [6]. - Crude Oil: The domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 on Tuesday showed a trend of decreasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The price reached a high of 440.8 yuan/barrel and a low of 436.3 yuan/barrel. At the close, the price closed 1.27% lower at 437.0 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East cooled down, the crude oil market gave back the premium, and the weak supply - demand fundamentals dominated. The short - term oil price will maintain a fluctuating consolidation pattern [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Rubber: As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons with a growth rate of 6.42%, and the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons with a growth rate of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. As of January 16, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises in the Chinese semi - steel tire industry was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises in the Chinese full - steel tire industry was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In December 2025, the sales of heavy - duty trucks in China were about 95,000, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales of heavy - duty trucks in China reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [8][9]. - Methanol: As of the week of January 16, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 86.80%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.42%, a month - on - month slight increase of 2.49%, and a significant increase of 6.06% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0354 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 7,000 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 4,400 tons, and a significant increase of 113,500 tons compared with 1.9219 million tons in the same period last year. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.05%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.65%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 7.30%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.51%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 81.89%, a week - on - week slight increase of 4.28%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.12%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average operating load of coal - (methanol) to olefin plants in China was 81.65%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.33 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.17%. As of January 16, 2026, the futures market profit of methanol to olefins in China was - 236 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 69 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decrease of 105 yuan/ton. As of the week of January 16, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0445 million tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 114,800 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 26,100 tons, and a significant increase of 281,400 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 15, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 450,900 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 28,200 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 98,100 tons, and a significant increase of 142,600 tons compared with 308,300 tons in the same period last year [10][11]. - Crude Oil: As of the week of January 9, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week slight decrease of 3 and a decrease of 70 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.753 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 58,000 barrels per day and a significant increase of 2.72 million barrels per day compared with the same period last year, remaining at a historical high. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) in the United States reached 422.4 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.391 million barrels and a significant increase of 9.767 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 23.585 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 745,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 413.7 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 214,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 95.3%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 3.6 percentage points. As of January 13, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 58,128 contracts, a week - on - week slight increase of 776 contracts and a slight decrease of 643 contracts or 1.09% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. As of January 13, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 193,366 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 72,680 contracts and a significant increase of 87,907 contracts or 83.36% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [11][12]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Futures Main Contract | Change | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,600 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | 15,620 yuan/ton | + 25 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,225 yuan/ton | + 6 yuan/ton | 2,206 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | - 6 yuan/ton | + 19 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 414.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 437.0 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | - 23.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | [13] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, rubber 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [14][16]. - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, methanol 5 - 9 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [27][29]. - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][41].