供应扰动叠加需求韧性，碳酸锂重回上行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply and demand fundamentals of lithium carbonate are good, with frequent supply disruptions and strong demand. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips caused by emotional disturbances [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - Due to the previous exchange position limits and profit - taking by funds, the price of lithium carbonate had a correction. But today, the unloading price of lithium carbonate rebounded sharply, with the main contract hitting the daily limit at 160,500 yuan per ton. The supply side is affected by the possible change of mining licenses in some mines in Jiangxi, and the market is worried about the full resumption of production. The short - term demand for lithium carbonate is resilient, and the medium - and long - term logic of new energy and energy storage demand remains unchanged [2] Fundamental Situation - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not changed much. In January, the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain strong, with a monthly output of about 100,000 tons. The change and resumption process of mining licenses in Jiangxi mines need to be monitored. Overseas, the geopolitical and resource policies in Mali and South America are tightening, posing supply risks. Although it is the traditional off - season in January, the demand for lithium carbonate is actually good. Downstream enterprises are actively stocking up after the price decline. The export tax rebate for lithium batteries is gradually decreasing, driving the short - term demand for lithium carbonate. The SMM social inventory started to be destocked last week, and the supply and demand in January are expected to be in a tight balance [3] Summary and Strategy - The current supply - demand fundamentals of lithium carbonate are good, with frequent supply disruptions and strong demand. The previous price decline was affected by capital games and exchange fee increases and position limits, but market expectations have not changed much. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips caused by emotional disturbances [4]